PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

Darmstadt 98 1–3 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 1–3.

Shots
1810
Shots on target
47
Expected goals
2.481.93
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat Darmstadt 98 3–1. Recorded in this match (Darmstadt 98 – RB Leipzig): shots 18–10, shots on target 4–7, expected goals 2.48–1.93, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Darmstadt 98's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Darmstadt 98's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Darmstadt 98 have a visible home split

weak

Darmstadt 98's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17 shots/match13 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.6%PossessionDarmstadt 98 · RB Leipzig● 54.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricDarmstadt 98RB LeipzigBaseline
Possession46.6%54.6%47.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots10 shotsDarmstadt 98 18 shots, RB Leipzig 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots7 shotsDarmstadt 98 4 shots, RB Leipzig 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.48 xG1.93 xGDarmstadt 98 2.48 xG, RB Leipzig 1.93 xG
  • Possession58%42%Darmstadt 98 58%, RB Leipzig 42%
  • Corners6 corners0 cornersDarmstadt 98 6 corners, RB Leipzig 0 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls12 foulsDarmstadt 98 16 fouls, RB Leipzig 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt 98 · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Darmstadt 98 · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 13′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEmil Forsberg · RB Leipzig · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavid Raum · RB Leipzig · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTobias Kempe · Darmstadt 98 · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFabian Nürnberger · Darmstadt 98 · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt 98 · 13′ · 0.06 xG · on targetOscar Vilhelmsson · Darmstadt 98 · 28′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEmil Forsberg · RB Leipzig · 24′ · 0.08 xG · goalTim Skarke · Darmstadt 98 · 51′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Klarer · Darmstadt 98 · 44′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKlaus Gjasula · Darmstadt 98 · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schnellhardt · Darmstadt 98 · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLuca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt 98 · 7′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 9′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLuca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt 98 · 49′ · 0.12 xG · on targetYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 11′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 51′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 1′ · 0.28 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 72′ · 0.35 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.35 xG · on targetTimo Werner · RB Leipzig · 89′ · 0.40 xG · on targetMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 6′ · 0.41 xG · on targetTobias Kempe · Darmstadt 98 · 32′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Darmstadt 98: 18 shots, 4 on target, 2.55 xG. RB Leipzig: 10 shots, 7 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt 98 · 32′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 1′Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig · 24′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Darmstadt 98 2.55 xG · RB Leipzig 1.91 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Darmstadt 98 favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Darmstadt 988 matchesRB Leipzig8 matches
1.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2.38 goals/match
2.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 0.88 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.44 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots8/812.3 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 6 shots/match
46.6%Possession8/8● 54.6%
3.75 corners/matchCorners8/8● 4.63 corners/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls8/810.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDarmstadt 98RB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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