PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricDarmstadt 98RB Leipzig
Shots18 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.48 xG/match▲1.93 xG/match
Possession58%●42%
Corners6 corners/match●0 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt 98 · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Darmstadt 98 · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 13′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEmil Forsberg · RB Leipzig · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavid Raum · RB Leipzig · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTobias Kempe · Darmstadt 98 · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFabian Nürnberger · Darmstadt 98 · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt 98 · 13′ · 0.06 xG · on targetOscar Vilhelmsson · Darmstadt 98 · 28′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEmil Forsberg · RB Leipzig · 24′ · 0.08 xG · goalTim Skarke · Darmstadt 98 · 51′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Klarer · Darmstadt 98 · 44′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKlaus Gjasula · Darmstadt 98 · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schnellhardt · Darmstadt 98 · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLuca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt 98 · 7′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 9′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLuca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt 98 · 49′ · 0.12 xG · on targetYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 11′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 51′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 1′ · 0.28 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 72′ · 0.35 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.35 xG · on targetTimo Werner · RB Leipzig · 89′ · 0.40 xG · on targetMarvin Mehlem · Darmstadt 98 · 6′ · 0.41 xG · on targetTobias Kempe · Darmstadt 98 · 32′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Darmstadt 98: 18 shots, 4 on target, 2.55 xG. RB Leipzig: 10 shots, 7 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt 98 · 32′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 1′Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig · 24′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Darmstadt 98 2.55 xG · RB Leipzig 1.91 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Darmstadt 98's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Darmstadt 98's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Darmstadt 98's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Darmstadt 98's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Darmstadt 98 have a visible home split

weak

Darmstadt 98's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17 shots/match13 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.6%PossessionDarmstadt 98 · RB Leipzig●54.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricDarmstadt 98RB LeipzigBaseline
Possession46.6%54.6%47.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Darmstadt 98 favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 7 · 5 too close

1.63 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲2.38 goals/match
2.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲0.88 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/81.44 xG/match
2.08 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.32 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/812.3 shots/match
15.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲11.4 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲6 shots/match
7.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲3.63 shots/match
46.6%Possessionseason · 8/8●54.6%
3.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/8●4.63 corners/match
4.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/84.5 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/810.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲50%
88%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/888%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Darmstadt 9836.1
RB Leipzig75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Darmstadt 9840.7
RB Leipzig62.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Darmstadt 9811.1
RB Leipzig86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Darmstadt 9852.8
RB Leipzig8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Darmstadt 9883.3
RB Leipzig36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Darmstadt 9825
RB Leipzig50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Darmstadt 9843
RB Leipzig47.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Darmstadt 988 matchesRB Leipzig8 matches
1.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.38 goals/match
2.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.88 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.44 xG/match
13 shots/match▲Shots8/812.3 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲6 shots/match
46.6%Possession8/8●54.6%
3.75 corners/matchCorners8/8●4.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.9 fouls/matchFouls8/810.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Darmstadt 984 matchesRB Leipzig4 matches
2.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/42.25 goals/match
3 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1 goals/match
2.09 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.35 xG/match
17 shots/match▲Shots4/411.5 shots/match
5.75 shots/matchShots on target4/46 shots/match
52.8%Possession4/4●54.3%
4.25 corners/matchCorners4/4●4.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.5 fouls/matchFouls4/49.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsDarmstadt 98RB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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