PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FSV Mainz 05 1–3 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–3.

Shots
1613
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.131.77
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–1. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – FC Bayern München): shots 16–13, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.13–1.77, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲Shots1. FSV Mainz 05 · FC Bayern München19.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match19.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match8 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.1%Possession1. FSV Mainz 05 · FC Bayern München● 63.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession46.1%63.5%47.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots13 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 16 shots, FC Bayern München 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 3 shots, FC Bayern München 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.13 xG1.77 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 1.13 xG, FC Bayern München 1.77 xG
  • Possession38%62%1. FSV Mainz 05 38%, FC Bayern München 62%
  • Corners2 corners7 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 2 corners, FC Bayern München 7 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 12 fouls, FC Bayern München 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 8′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDanny da Costa · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthijs de Ligt · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAymen Barkok · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 59′ · 0.05 xG · goalJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 13′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 43′ · 0.06 xG · goalKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 11′ · 0.07 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 23′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEdimilson Fernandes · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 87′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedStefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 57′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 81′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 21′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 35′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 89′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 16′ · 0.51 xG · goalLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 9′ · 0.57 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 16 shots, 3 on target, 1.14 xG. FC Bayern München: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 43′Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 11′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 16′Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 59′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.14 xG · FC Bayern München 1.80 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FSV Mainz 05
0Draws
2FC Bayern München
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–1
FC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga6–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–1
FC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 058 matchesFC Bayern München8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 3.25 goals/match
2.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 0.88 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 2.73 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 19.5 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 7.88 shots/match
46.1%Possession8/8● 63.5%
3.88 corners/matchCorners8/8● 7.63 corners/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls8/810.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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