PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Köln 3–1 Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Köln won 3–1.

Shots
235
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
2.730.26
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Köln beat Borussia M'gladbach 3–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – Borussia M'gladbach): shots 23–5, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 2.73–0.26, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.38 corners/matchCorners1. FC Köln · Borussia M'gladbach● 6.63 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnBorussia M'gladbachBaseline
Corners6.38 corners/match6.63 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

1. FC Köln have a visible home split

weak

1. FC Köln's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Borussia M'gladbach's recent record differs from the season

weak

Borussia M'gladbach's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots5 shots1. FC Köln 23 shots, Borussia M'gladbach 5 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shots1. FC Köln 8 shots, Borussia M'gladbach 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.73 xG0.26 xG1. FC Köln 2.73 xG, Borussia M'gladbach 0.26 xG
  • Possession60%40%1. FC Köln 60%, Borussia M'gladbach 40%
  • Corners8 corners3 corners1. FC Köln 8 corners, Borussia M'gladbach 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls10 fouls1. FC Köln 13 fouls, Borussia M'gladbach 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nico Elvedi · Borussia M'gladbach · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRobin Hack · Borussia M'gladbach · 82′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeart Paqarada · 1. FC Köln · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFranck Honorat · Borussia M'gladbach · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 11′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFranck Honorat · Borussia M'gladbach · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.04 xG · goalFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTimo Hübers · 1. FC Köln · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 85′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln · 17′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTimo Hübers · 1. FC Köln · 29′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln · 13′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 84′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNico Elvedi · Borussia M'gladbach · 63′ · 0.18 xG · goalDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 9′ · 0.82 xG · goalFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 76′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 23 shots, 8 on target, 2.81 xG. Borussia M'gladbach: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 9′Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 76′Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 90′Nico Elvedi · Borussia M'gladbach · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 2.81 xG · Borussia M'gladbach 0.27 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Köln
1Draws
1Borussia M'gladbach
1. FC Köln — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga0–0
Borussia M'gladbach — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga5–2
Borussia M'gladbach — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–3
1. FC Köln — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia M'gladbach in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln8 matchesBorussia M'gladbach8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.88 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/82.38 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.64 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 14.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 5.25 shots/match
45.1%Possession8/8● 46.3%
6.38 corners/matchCorners8/8● 6.63 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls8/89.75 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnBorussia M'gladbach
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — Borussia M'gladbach
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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