PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 2–0.

Shots
1010
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.960.51
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat RB Leipzig 2–0. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – RB Leipzig): shots 10–10, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.96–0.51, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RB Leipzig have a visible away split

moderate

RB Leipzig's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.1 shots/match ▲Shots1. FSV Mainz 05 · RB Leipzig13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05RB LeipzigBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match10.7 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots10 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 10 shots, RB Leipzig 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 3 shots, RB Leipzig 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG0.51 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 0.96 xG, RB Leipzig 0.51 xG
  • Possession32%68%1. FSV Mainz 05 32%, RB Leipzig 68%
  • Corners2 corners7 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 2 corners, RB Leipzig 7 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls9 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 13 fouls, RB Leipzig 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 58′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEmil Forsberg · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEdimilson Fernandes · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTimo Werner · RB Leipzig · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 48′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 47′ · 0.07 xG · on targetTom Krauß · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 75′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAymen Barkok · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 85′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 16′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 20′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 66′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′ · 0.15 xG · goalLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 80′ · 0.31 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.93 xG. RB Leipzig: 10 shots, 1 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.93 xG · RB Leipzig 0.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FSV Mainz 05
1Draws
1RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–1
RB Leipzig — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0510 matchesRB Leipzig10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 2.5 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 0.9 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 1.63 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 13.4 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 6.3 shots/match
45.1%Possession10/10● 56.7%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/10● 5.5 corners/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05RB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — RB Leipzig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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