PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1.

Shots
106
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
1.260.14
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

TSG Hoffenheim and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – 1. FC Köln): shots 10–6, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 1.26–0.14, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.71 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Köln's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.36 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.36 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots6 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 10 shots, 1. FC Köln 6 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotTSG Hoffenheim 3 shots, 1. FC Köln 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.26 xG0.14 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.26 xG, 1. FC Köln 0.14 xG
  • Possession57%43%TSG Hoffenheim 57%, 1. FC Köln 43%
  • Corners10 corners3 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 10 corners, 1. FC Köln 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls13 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 12 fouls, 1. FC Köln 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Denis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedJan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKevin Akpoguma · TSG Hoffenheim · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMax Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIhlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 55′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIhlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMax Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 79′ · 0.05 xG · goalRobert Skov · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · TSG Hoffenheim · 60′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 64′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · TSG Hoffenheim · 43′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRobert Skov · TSG Hoffenheim · 64′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.20 xG · goalIhlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 14′ · 0.37 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.26 xG. 1. FC Köln: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Andrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′Max Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 1.26 xG · 1. FC Köln 0.15 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3TSG Hoffenheim
1Draws
11. FC Köln
1. FC Köln — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–3
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–3
1. FC Köln — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Köln — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga0–1
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim21 matches1. FC Köln21 matches
1.81 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/210.71 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.72 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.07 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots21/2112.2 shots/match
4.81 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/214.29 shots/match
50% ●Possession21/2146.5%
4.38 corners/matchCorners21/21● 5.57 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Feb 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG Hoffenheim1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — 1. FC Köln
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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