Bundesliga · 2023Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

VfB Stuttgart

LWWWW

1–1Full-time recap

1. FC Köln

LDWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfB Stuttgart	1. FC Köln
Shots	13 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.3 xG/match▲	0.7 xG/match
Possession	75%●	25%
Corners	9 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 13 shots, 5 on target, 2.26 xG. 1. FC Köln: 12 shots, 6 on target, 0.72 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 2.26 xG · 1. FC Köln 0.72 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Köln's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.7 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	0.7 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Köln's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.58 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.58 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.5%●PossessionVfB Stuttgart · 1. FC Köln46%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	VfB Stuttgart	1. FC Köln	Baseline
Possession	59.5%	46%	47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3VfB Stuttgart

1Draws

11. FC Köln

30 Sept 20231. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–2

18 Feb 2023VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–0

28 Aug 20221. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–0

14 May 2022VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–1

19 Dec 20211. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 0 · 2 too close

2.26 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/230.7 goals/match

1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.61 goals/match

2.21 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/231.04 xG/match

1.09 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 23/232.06 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2312.2 shots/match

11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2314.7 shots/match

6.48 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/234.3 shots/match

4.09 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/235.09 shots/match

59.5%●Possessionseason · 23/2346%

4.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/23●5.48 corners/match

4.09 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/235.91 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.83 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2313%

87%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2357%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart86.1

1. FC Köln25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart84.3

1. FC Köln26.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart82.4

1. FC Köln41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart30.6

1. FC Köln36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart16.7

1. FC Köln58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart58.3

1. FC Köln75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart60.4

1. FC Köln52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart23 matches1. FC Köln23 matches

2.26 goals/match▲Goals scored23/230.7 goals/match

1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.61 goals/match

2.21 xG/match▲Expected goals23/231.04 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots23/2312.2 shots/match

6.48 shots/match▲Shots on target23/234.3 shots/match

59.5%●Possession23/2346%

4.96 corners/matchCorners23/23●5.48 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.83 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

VfB Stuttgart12 matches1. FC Köln12 matches

2.92 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.58 goals/match

0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.75 goals/match

2.74 xG/match▲Expected goals12/120.97 xG/match

17.6 shots/match▲Shots12/129.58 shots/match

8.42 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.75 shots/match

60.3%●Possession12/1243.5%

5.92 corners/match●Corners12/123.58 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.17 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4