PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfL Bochum 1848 · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 2–0.

Shots
1511
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
2.480.78
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat VfL Bochum 1848 2–0. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – VfL Bochum 1848): shots 15–11, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 2.48–0.78, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.85 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Bochum 1848 have a visible away split

moderate

VfL Bochum 1848's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.9 fouls/matchFouls1. FSV Mainz 05 · VfL Bochum 184813.5 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05VfL Bochum 1848Baseline
Fouls13.9 fouls/match13.5 fouls/match11.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots11 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 15 shots, VfL Bochum 1848 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 4 shots, VfL Bochum 1848 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.48 xG0.78 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 2.48 xG, VfL Bochum 1848 0.78 xG
  • Possession50%50%1. FSV Mainz 05 50%, VfL Bochum 1848 50%
  • Corners7 corners6 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 7 corners, VfL Bochum 1848 6 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls16 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 15 fouls, VfL Bochum 1848 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKeven Schlotterbeck · VfL Bochum 1848 · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Losilla · VfL Bochum 1848 · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBernardo · VfL Bochum 1848 · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTakuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Hofmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 74′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKeven Schlotterbeck · VfL Bochum 1848 · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFelix Passlack · VfL Bochum 1848 · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTakuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTakuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 64′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 43′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAnthony Losilla · VfL Bochum 1848 · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 35′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 66′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Paciência · VfL Bochum 1848 · 85′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goalJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 71′ · 0.83 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 15 shots, 4 on target, 2.46 xG. VfL Bochum 1848: 11 shots, 1 on target, 0.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 45′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.46 xG · VfL Bochum 1848 0.76 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Bochum 1848 in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0526 matchesVfL Bochum 184826 matches
0.85 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.15 goals/match
1.77 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/262.08 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.27 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots26/2614.5 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 4.35 shots/match
46.1% ●Possession26/2645.2%
5.54 corners/match ●Corners26/264.08 corners/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls26/2613.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05VfL Bochum 1848
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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