PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Union Berlin 1–5 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

1–5Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–5.

Shots
1519
Shots on target
49
Expected goals
1.451.43
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat 1. FC Union Berlin 5–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Union Berlin – FC Bayern München): shots 15–19, shots on target 4–9, expected goals 1.45–1.43, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.87 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.87 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Union Berlin · FC Bayern München19.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Union BerlinFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match19.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match9.93 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.6%Possession1. FC Union Berlin · FC Bayern München● 62.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Union BerlinFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession42.6%62.6%47%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots19 shots1. FC Union Berlin 15 shots, FC Bayern München 19 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots9 shots1. FC Union Berlin 4 shots, FC Bayern München 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.45 xG1.43 xG1. FC Union Berlin 1.45 xG, FC Bayern München 1.43 xG
  • Possession36%64%1. FC Union Berlin 36%, FC Bayern München 64%
  • Corners5 corners3 corners1. FC Union Berlin 5 corners, FC Bayern München 3 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls4 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 4 fouls, FC Bayern München 4 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kevin Volland · 1. FC Union Berlin · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Bayern München · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Bayern München · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoussair Mazraoui · FC Bayern München · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBryan Zaragoza · FC Bayern München · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLucas Tousart · 1. FC Union Berlin · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAndrás Schäfer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrenden Aaronson · 1. FC Union Berlin · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 5′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 42′ · 0.04 xG · on targetThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 66′ · 0.04 xG · goalBrenden Aaronson · 1. FC Union Berlin · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYorbe Vertessen · 1. FC Union Berlin · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.06 xG · goalMikkel Kaufmann · 1. FC Union Berlin · 86′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRobin Gosens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.11 xG · goalBryan Zaragoza · FC Bayern München · 85′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 34′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.14 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.16 xG · on targetYorbe Vertessen · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.16 xG · goalLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 29′ · 0.19 xG · goalYorbe Vertessen · 1. FC Union Berlin · 74′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 42′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedYorbe Vertessen · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Union Berlin: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.46 xG. FC Bayern München: 19 shots, 9 on target, 1.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Yorbe Vertessen · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 29′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 45′Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 53′Mathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 62′Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Union Berlin 1.46 xG · FC Bayern München 1.45 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Union Berlin
1Draws
4FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–0
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–0
1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–1
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga4–0
1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin30 matchesFC Bayern München30 matches
0.87 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 2.9 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲ 2.67 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 19.7 shots/match
3.77 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 7.43 shots/match
42.6%Possession30/30● 62.6%
4.53 corners/matchCorners30/30● 7.13 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls30/308.97 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Apr 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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