PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

FC Bayern München 1–0 Arsenal · UEFA Champions League

1–0Historical match

Arsenal

WDLWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–0.

Shots
158
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.330.39
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat Arsenal 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – Arsenal): shots 15–8, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.33–0.39, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.9 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.7 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Arsenal12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenArsenalBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against9.6 shots/match9.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots8 shotsFC Bayern München 15 shots, Arsenal 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsFC Bayern München 3 shots, Arsenal 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.33 xG0.39 xGFC Bayern München 1.33 xG, Arsenal 0.39 xG
  • Possession51%49%FC Bayern München 51%, Arsenal 49%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersFC Bayern München 8 corners, Arsenal 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsFC Bayern München 10 fouls, Arsenal 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 29′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoussair Mazraoui · FC Bayern München · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBen White · Arsenal · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 40′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEric Dier · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 4′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 69′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 31′ · 0.14 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 47′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 63′ · 0.33 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.31 xG. Arsenal: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 1.31 xG · Arsenal 0.38 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC Bayern München
1Draws
0Arsenal
Arsenal — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League2–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Arsenal in 3 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München10 matchesArsenal10 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 1.9 goals/match
0.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 0.8 goals/match
1.75 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.35 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots10/1012.1 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/104.3 shots/match
56.2%Possession10/10● 56.9%
5.4 corners/match ●Corners10/104.8 corners/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 17 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenArsenal
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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