PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

TSG Hoffenheim 4–2 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

4–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim won 4–2.

Shots
1711
Shots on target
94
Expected goals
1.781.52
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

TSG Hoffenheim beat FC Bayern München 4–2. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – FC Bayern München): shots 17–11, shots on target 9–4, expected goals 1.78–1.52, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

TSG Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.4 goals/match1.94 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match ▲ShotsTSG Hoffenheim · FC Bayern München18.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTSG HoffenheimFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match18.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against16.8 shots/match10.4 shots/match14.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

TSG Hoffenheim have a visible home split

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots11 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 17 shots, FC Bayern München 11 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots4 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 9 shots, FC Bayern München 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.78 xG1.52 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.78 xG, FC Bayern München 1.52 xG
  • Possession48%52%TSG Hoffenheim 48%, FC Bayern München 52%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 6 corners, FC Bayern München 5 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls9 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 7 fouls, FC Bayern München 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marius Bülter · TSG Hoffenheim · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 65′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDavid Jurásek · TSG Hoffenheim · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedUmut Tohumcu · TSG Hoffenheim · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthijs de Ligt · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 18′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 28′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 30′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 67′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPavel Kadeřábek · TSG Hoffenheim · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 18′ · 0.08 xG · on targetThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOzan Kabak · TSG Hoffenheim · 57′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 85′ · 0.10 xG · goalIhlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 33′ · 0.11 xG · on targetThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 61′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 79′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 1′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 8′ · 0.25 xG · goalAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 87′ · 0.27 xG · goalMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 4′ · 0.31 xG · goalAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 68′ · 0.38 xG · goalAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.51 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 17 shots, 9 on target, 1.75 xG. FC Bayern München: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Maximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 8′Andrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 68′Andrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 85′Andrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 87′Mathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 4′Alphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 6′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 1.75 xG · FC Bayern München 1.48 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0TSG Hoffenheim
2Draws
3FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga3–0
FC Bayern München — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–1
TSG Hoffenheim — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–2
TSG Hoffenheim — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–1
FC Bayern München — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim34 matchesFC Bayern München34 matches
1.94 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲ 2.76 goals/match
1.94 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲ 1.32 goals/match
1.6 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲ 2.56 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots34/34▲ 18.8 shots/match
4.88 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲ 7.12 shots/match
49.7%Possession34/34● 61.5%
4.38 corners/matchCorners34/34● 6.71 corners/match
9.97 fouls/matchFouls34/348.94 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 May 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG HoffenheimFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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