PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024Sat, 19 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTSG HoffenheimVfL Bochum 1848
Shots12 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.45 xG/match2.66 xG/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners4 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Maximilian Wittek · VfL Bochum 1848 · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Kwarteng · VfL Bochum 1848 · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahima Sissoko · VfL Bochum 1848 · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · TSG Hoffenheim · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Wittek · VfL Bochum 1848 · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Broschinski · VfL Bochum 1848 · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Kwarteng · VfL Bochum 1848 · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedUmut Tohumcu · TSG Hoffenheim · 73′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCristian Gamboa · VfL Bochum 1848 · 76′ · 0.05 xG · goalAdam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 70′ · 0.06 xG · on targetTom Bischof · TSG Hoffenheim · 4′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPhilipp Hofmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 69′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 54′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKoji Miyoshi · VfL Bochum 1848 · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 11′ · 0.13 xG · goalAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 24′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedHaris Tabaković · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.22 xG · goalMarius Bülter · TSG Hoffenheim · 64′ · 0.27 xG · goalPhilipp Hofmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 68′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · TSG Hoffenheim · 14′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedKoji Miyoshi · VfL Bochum 1848 · 42′ · 0.38 xG · on targetAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 16′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 39′ · 0.56 xG · on targetLukas Daschner · VfL Bochum 1848 · 47′ · 0.79 xG · off target or blockedLukas Daschner · VfL Bochum 1848 · 89′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 12 shots, 7 on target, 2.51 xG. VfL Bochum 1848: 13 shots, 4 on target, 2.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Andrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 11′Marius Bülter · TSG Hoffenheim · 64′Haris Tabaković · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′Cristian Gamboa · VfL Bochum 1848 · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 2.51 xG · VfL Bochum 1848 2.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Bochum 1848's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: TSG Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

VfL Bochum 1848's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Bochum 1848's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.64 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

TSG Hoffenheim have a visible home split

weak

TSG Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfL Bochum 1848 show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfL Bochum 1848's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match▲ShotsTSG Hoffenheim · VfL Bochum 184813.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTSG HoffenheimVfL Bochum 1848Baseline
Shots11.9 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against17.6 shots/match17.1 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2TSG Hoffenheim
0Draws
3VfL Bochum 1848
VfL Bochum 1848 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga3–2
TSG Hoffenheim — VfL Bochum 1848 · Bundesliga3–1
VfL Bochum 1848 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga5–2
TSG Hoffenheim — VfL Bochum 1848 · Bundesliga3–2
TSG Hoffenheim — VfL Bochum 1848 · Bundesliga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

TSG Hoffenheim favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · VfL Bochum 1848 in 1 · 7 too close

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71 goals/match
2.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/72.43 goals/match
1.48 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.29 xG/match
2.4 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/72.6 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲13.3 shots/match
17.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/717.1 shots/match
5.14 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/74 shots/match
6.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/76 shots/match
44.6%●Possessionseason · 7/744%
4.57 corners/match●Cornersseason · 7/73.29 corners/match
6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/76.29 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/713.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/771%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

TSG Hoffenheim36.1
VfL Bochum 184830.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

TSG Hoffenheim52.8
VfL Bochum 184832.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

TSG Hoffenheim18.5
VfL Bochum 184822.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

TSG Hoffenheim41.7
VfL Bochum 184875
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

TSG Hoffenheim44.4
VfL Bochum 184886.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

TSG Hoffenheim50
VfL Bochum 18488.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

TSG Hoffenheim47.2
VfL Bochum 184845.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim7 matchesVfL Bochum 18487 matches
1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
2.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/72.43 goals/match
1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.29 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲13.3 shots/match
5.14 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match
44.6%●Possession7/744%
4.57 corners/match●Corners7/73.29 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls7/713.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

TSG Hoffenheim4 matchesVfL Bochum 18484 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
2.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲2.5 goals/match
2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.46 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shots4/411.5 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44 shots/match
45.3%●Possession4/441.8%
4.5 corners/match●Corners4/42.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.5 fouls/matchFouls4/413.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTSG HoffenheimVfL Bochum 1848
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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TSG Hoffenheim vs VfL Bochum 1848 — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath