Bundesliga · 2024Fri, 20 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

FC Bayern München

WWDWL

5–1Full-time recap

RB Leipzig

DLLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Bayern München	RB Leipzig
Shots	22 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	3.29 xG/match▲	0.34 xG/match
Possession	71%●	29%
Corners	8 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Bayern München: 22 shots, 9 on target, 3.23 xG. RB Leipzig: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 3.23 xG · RB Leipzig 0.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

19.3 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · RB Leipzig11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	RB Leipzig	Baseline
Shots	19.3 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	5.13 shots/match	15.9 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

72.1%●PossessionFC Bayern München · RB Leipzig51%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	RB Leipzig	Baseline
Possession	72.1%	51%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

RB Leipzig have a visible away split

moderate

RB Leipzig's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.5 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2FC Bayern München

2Draws

1RB Leipzig

24 Feb 2024FC Bayern München — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–1

30 Sept 2023RB Leipzig — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–2

20 May 2023FC Bayern München — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–3

20 Jan 2023RB Leipzig — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–1

5 Feb 2022FC Bayern München — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 1 · 2 too close

3.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/151.6 goals/match

0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/151.33 goals/match

2.34 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 15/151.39 xG/match

0.64 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 15/151.5 xG/match

19.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/1511.5 shots/match

5.13 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1515.9 shots/match

7.87 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/154.73 shots/match

1.73 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/155.07 shots/match

72.1%●Possessionseason · 15/1551%

6.6 corners/match●Cornersseason · 15/154 corners/match

1.93 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/155.4 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.47 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1511.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

47%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲53%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München97.2

RB Leipzig69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München97.2

RB Leipzig38

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München97.2

RB Leipzig49.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München47.2

RB Leipzig8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München8.3

RB Leipzig58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München91.7

RB Leipzig22.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München73.6

RB Leipzig35.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

FC Bayern München15 matchesRB Leipzig15 matches

3.13 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.6 goals/match

0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.33 goals/match

2.34 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.39 xG/match

19.3 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.5 shots/match

7.87 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.73 shots/match

72.1%●Possession15/1551%

6.6 corners/match●Corners15/154 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.47 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

FC Bayern München7 matchesRB Leipzig8 matches

3.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/81.63 goals/match

0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/81.63 goals/match

2.62 xG/match▲Expected goals7/81.15 xG/match

20.6 shots/match▲Shots7/89.5 shots/match

8 shots/match▲Shots on target7/83.88 shots/match

73.4%●Possession7/845.6%

6.57 corners/match●Corners7/81.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.71 fouls/matchFouls7/811.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples15 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Dec 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4