PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 1–3.

Shots
1412
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.52.84
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–1. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – Borussia Dortmund): shots 14–12, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.5–2.84, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.29 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.29 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.7%PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · Borussia Dortmund● 58.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBorussia DortmundBaseline
Possession43.7%58.4%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots12 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 14 shots, Borussia Dortmund 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 5 shots, Borussia Dortmund 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.5 xG2.84 xGVfL Wolfsburg 1.5 xG, Borussia Dortmund 2.84 xG
  • Possession50%50%VfL Wolfsburg 50%, Borussia Dortmund 50%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 10 corners, Borussia Dortmund 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls8 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 8 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 78′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 84′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 69′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLukas Nmecha · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 15′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 30′ · 0.15 xG · goalMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 2′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 58′ · 0.25 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 18′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 35′ · 0.28 xG · on targetLukas Nmecha · VfL Wolfsburg · 49′ · 0.51 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 25′ · 0.57 xG · goalMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 28′ · 0.57 xG · goalJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 2′ · 0.81 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.55 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 12 shots, 4 on target, 2.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Denis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 58′Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 25′Maximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 28′Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 30′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG · Borussia Dortmund 2.86 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1VfL Wolfsburg
1Draws
3Borussia Dortmund
VfL Wolfsburg — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–1
Borussia Dortmund — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–0
Borussia Dortmund — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga6–0
VfL Wolfsburg — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga2–0
Borussia Dortmund — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga6–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg15 matchesBorussia Dortmund15 matches
2.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/151.87 goals/match
1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1.47 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲ 1.57 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots15/1512.9 shots/match
4.8 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/154.47 shots/match
43.7%Possession15/15● 58.4%
5 corners/matchCorners15/155 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Dec 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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