Bundesliga · 2024Sat, 11 Jan 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

1. FC Heidenheim

LLLLL

2–0Full-time recap

1. FC Union Berlin

LLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	1. FC Union Berlin
Shots	16 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.4 xG/match▲	1.16 xG/match
Possession	58%●	42%
Corners	5 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 16 shots, 9 on target, 1.45 xG. 1. FC Union Berlin: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 xG · 1. FC Union Berlin 1.16 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · 1. FC Union Berlin11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	1. FC Union Berlin	Baseline
Shots	11.8 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	14.2 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

11. FC Heidenheim

1Draws

01. FC Union Berlin

24 Feb 20241. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga2–2

30 Sept 20231. FC Heidenheim — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FC Union Berlin in 5 · 3 too close

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/160.81 goals/match

2.06 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.38 goals/match

1.38 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 16/150.97 xG/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 16/15▲1.32 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1511.8 shots/match

14.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/15▲11.3 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/153.73 shots/match

5.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/15▲4.27 shots/match

42.3%●Possessionseason · 16/1540.5%

3.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/15●4.73 corners/match

5.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/15▲4.6 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1513.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1625%

63%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim13.9

1. FC Union Berlin2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim24.1

1. FC Union Berlin13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim24.1

1. FC Union Berlin76.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 96%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim69.4

1. FC Union Berlin86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim75

1. FC Union Berlin91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 47%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim19.4

1. FC Union Berlin36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim34.7

1. FC Union Berlin40.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim16 matches1. FC Union Berlin16 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.81 goals/match

2.06 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.38 goals/match

1.38 xG/match▲Expected goals16/150.97 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots16/1511.8 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on target16/153.73 shots/match

42.3%●Possession16/1540.5%

3.94 corners/matchCorners16/15●4.73 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1513.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

1. FC Heidenheim8 matches1. FC Union Berlin9 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored8/90.67 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/91.67 goals/match

1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals8/90.88 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shots8/911.9 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target8/93.56 shots/match

46.6%●Possession8/939.7%

5.38 corners/matchCorners8/9●5.44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls8/913.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Jan 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4