PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 1–0.

Shots
207
Shots on target
94
Expected goals
1.850.72
Possession
67%33%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bayer 04 Leverkusen – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 20–7, shots on target 9–4, expected goals 1.85–0.72, possession 67%–33%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 1. FSV Mainz 05.

3.99 days ▲Rest daysBayer 04 Leverkusen · 1. FSV Mainz 053.21 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBayer 04 Leverkusen1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Rest days3.99 days3.21 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a visible home split

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season16.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.1 shots/match16.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots7 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 20 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 7 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots4 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 9 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.85 xG0.72 xGBayer 04 Leverkusen 1.85 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.72 xG
  • Possession67%33%Bayer 04 Leverkusen 67%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 33%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersBayer 04 Leverkusen 8 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls14 foulsBayer 04 Leverkusen 4 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 28′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 61′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 50′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedExequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 38′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKaishu Sano · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 71′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 81′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 18′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 73′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 48′ · 0.10 xG · goalAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 18′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 58′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 73′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedNathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 83′ · 0.29 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 7′ · 0.36 xG · on targetAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 50′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 20 shots, 9 on target, 1.86 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.86 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.71 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0Draws
21. FSV Mainz 05
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bayer 04 Leverkusen favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bayer 04 Leverkusen17 matches1. FSV Mainz 0517 matches
2.41 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/171.76 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1.24 goals/match
1.91 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/171.4 xG/match
16.6 shots/match ▲Shots17/1712.1 shots/match
6.47 shots/match ▲Shots on target17/174.65 shots/match
60.8% ●Possession17/1746.9%
6.94 corners/match ●Corners17/174.82 corners/match
8.35 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 14 Jan 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBayer 04 Leverkusen1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headBayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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