PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

VfL Bochum 1848 1–0 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Bochum 1848 won 1–0.

Shots
1312
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
1.450.68
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Bochum 1848 beat FC St. Pauli 1–0. Recorded in this match (VfL Bochum 1848 – FC St. Pauli): shots 13–12, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 1.45–0.68, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.62 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots12 shotsVfL Bochum 1848 13 shots, FC St. Pauli 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotVfL Bochum 1848 5 shots, FC St. Pauli 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.45 xG0.68 xGVfL Bochum 1848 1.45 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.68 xG
  • Possession51%49%VfL Bochum 1848 51%, FC St. Pauli 49%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersVfL Bochum 1848 6 corners, FC St. Pauli 7 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls15 foulsVfL Bochum 1848 7 fouls, FC St. Pauli 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gerrit Holtmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Wittek · VfL Bochum 1848 · 33′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Wittek · VfL Bochum 1848 · 2′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatúš Bero · VfL Bochum 1848 · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGerrit Holtmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 16′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 75′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Broschinski · VfL Bochum 1848 · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPhilipp Hofmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 52′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Hofmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 60′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 53′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Hofmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 49′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Hofmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 66′ · 0.17 xG · goalMoritz Broschinski · VfL Bochum 1848 · 84′ · 0.19 xG · on targetEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 87′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedErhan Mašović · VfL Bochum 1848 · 37′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedGerrit Holtmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 31′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Bochum 1848: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.48 xG. FC St. Pauli: 12 shots, 1 on target, 0.68 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Philipp Hofmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Bochum 1848 1.48 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.68 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Bochum 1848 favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Bochum 184817 matchesFC St. Pauli17 matches
0.88 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/170.71 goals/match
2.12 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1.24 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals16/171.08 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots16/1712 shots/match
3.56 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/173.24 shots/match
42.8%Possession16/17● 43.5%
4 corners/match ●Corners16/173.76 corners/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1710.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 15 Jan 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL Bochum 1848FC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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