PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

SV Werder Bremen 1–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SV Werder Bremen won 1–0.

Shots
1213
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
2.671.25
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

SV Werder Bremen beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–0. Recorded in this match (SV Werder Bremen – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 12–13, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 2.67–1.25, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.65 goals/match1.61 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots13 shotsSV Werder Bremen 12 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsSV Werder Bremen 5 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.67 xG1.25 xGSV Werder Bremen 2.67 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.25 xG
  • Possession37%63%SV Werder Bremen 37%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 63%
  • Corners3 corners8 cornersSV Werder Bremen 3 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 8 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls13 foulsSV Werder Bremen 14 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 1′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 50′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDanny da Costa · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDerrick Köhn · SV Werder Bremen · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 75′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMaxim Leitsch · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 49′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 47′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen · 82′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSenne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen · 83′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 1′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 28′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 30′ · 0.18 xG · on targetPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 51′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 69′ · 0.22 xG · on targetIssa Kaboré · SV Werder Bremen · 14′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 76′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen · 14′ · 0.44 xG · goalMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 12′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SV Werder Bremen: 12 shots, 5 on target, 2.69 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen · 14′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SV Werder Bremen 2.69 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.27 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3SV Werder Bremen
1Draws
11. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga1–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga0–1
SV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga2–2
SV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SV Werder Bremen favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 2 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SV Werder Bremen20 matches1. FSV Mainz 0520 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored20/201.65 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲ 1.2 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals20/201.43 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots20/2011.9 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target20/204.3 shots/match
50.6% ●Possession20/2048.6%
4.75 corners/matchCorners20/20● 5.05 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls20/2012.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 31 Jan 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSV Werder Bremen1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headSV Werder Bremen — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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