PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

RB Leipzig 2–0 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 2–0.

Shots
117
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.540.57
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat FC St. Pauli 2–0. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – FC St. Pauli): shots 11–7, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.54–0.57, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RB Leipzig have a visible home split

moderate

RB Leipzig's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsRB Leipzig · FC St. Pauli11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigFC St. PauliBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against14.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots7 shotsRB Leipzig 11 shots, FC St. Pauli 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsRB Leipzig 6 shots, FC St. Pauli 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.54 xG0.57 xGRB Leipzig 1.54 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.57 xG
  • Possession56%44%RB Leipzig 56%, FC St. Pauli 44%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersRB Leipzig 5 corners, FC St. Pauli 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls8 foulsRB Leipzig 12 fouls, FC St. Pauli 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRidle Baku · RB Leipzig · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRidle Baku · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedElias Saad · FC St. Pauli · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 84′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAmadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 49′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCastello Lukeba · RB Leipzig · 56′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 3′ · 0.11 xG · on targetChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 72′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 88′ · 0.13 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.13 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.18 xG · on targetXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 35′ · 0.29 xG · goalBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 16′ · 0.48 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RB Leipzig: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.58 xG. FC St. Pauli: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 16′Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 35′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RB Leipzig 1.58 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.57 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0RB Leipzig
1Draws
0FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig21 matchesFC St. Pauli21 matches
1.71 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/210.86 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲ 1.14 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.05 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots21/2111.3 shots/match
4.52 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/213.24 shots/match
51.6% ●Possession21/2143.5%
4 corners/match ●Corners21/213.81 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls21/2110.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Feb 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRB LeipzigFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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