PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC St. Pauli 1–0 TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC St. Pauli won 1–0.

Shots
104
Shots on target
50
Expected goals
1.950.2
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC St. Pauli beat TSG Hoffenheim 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – TSG Hoffenheim): shots 10–4, shots on target 5–0, expected goals 1.95–0.2, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.77 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

TSG Hoffenheim have a visible away split

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots4 shotsFC St. Pauli 10 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 4 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots0 shotsFC St. Pauli 5 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 0 shots
  • Expected goals1.95 xG0.2 xGFC St. Pauli 1.95 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 0.2 xG
  • Possession43%57%FC St. Pauli 43%, TSG Hoffenheim 57%
  • Corners11 corners2 cornersFC St. Pauli 11 corners, TSG Hoffenheim 2 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls8 foulsFC St. Pauli 6 fouls, TSG Hoffenheim 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bazoumana Touré · TSG Hoffenheim · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGift Orban · TSG Hoffenheim · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBazoumana Touré · TSG Hoffenheim · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 7′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 27′ · 0.06 xG · on targetHaris Tabaković · TSG Hoffenheim · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 38′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 4′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 58′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 58′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 79′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSiebe Van Der Heyden · FC St. Pauli · 28′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 51′ · 0.89 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 10 shots, 5 on target, 2.06 xG. TSG Hoffenheim: 4 shots, 0 on target, 0.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Noah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 51′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 2.06 xG · TSG Hoffenheim 0.18 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC St. Pauli
0Draws
0TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga0–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · TSG Hoffenheim in 5

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli26 matchesTSG Hoffenheim26 matches
0.77 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.15 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.85 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.25 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 12.9 shots/match
3.04 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 4.38 shots/match
43.9%Possession26/26● 50%
4.27 corners/matchCorners26/26● 4.88 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2611 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 14 Mar 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliTSG Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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