Bundesliga · 2024

FC Bayern München 3–2 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 3–2.

Shots
1910
Shots on target
94
Expected goals
3.570.97
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat FC St. Pauli 3–2. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – FC St. Pauli): shots 19–10, shots on target 9–4, expected goals 3.57–0.97, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.7 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · FC St. Pauli10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenFC St. PauliBaseline
Shots18.7 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against6.22 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

69.4% ●PossessionFC Bayern München · FC St. Pauli43.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession69.4%43.6%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots10 shotsFC Bayern München 19 shots, FC St. Pauli 10 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots4 shotsFC Bayern München 9 shots, FC St. Pauli 4 shots
  • Expected goals3.57 xG0.97 xGFC Bayern München 3.57 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.97 xG
  • Possession66%34%FC Bayern München 66%, FC St. Pauli 34%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersFC Bayern München 5 corners, FC St. Pauli 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls4 foulsFC Bayern München 13 fouls, FC St. Pauli 4 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 50′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConnor Metcalfe · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 20′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.06 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 25′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 55′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 14′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 74′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 42′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 69′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 1′ · 0.13 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 78′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedEric Dier · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.18 xG · on targetRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 21′ · 0.23 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 34′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.27 xG · goalLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 35′ · 0.36 xG · on targetElias Saad · FC St. Pauli · 27′ · 0.53 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 17′ · 0.58 xG · goalLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 71′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 19 shots, 9 on target, 3.50 xG. FC St. Pauli: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 17′Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 53′Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 71′Elias Saad · FC St. Pauli · 27′Lars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 3.50 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.97 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC Bayern München
0Draws
0FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München27 matchesFC St. Pauli27 matches
2.89 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/270.81 goals/match
0.96 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.22 goals/match
2.49 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.04 xG/match
18.7 shots/match ▲Shots27/2710.9 shots/match
7.85 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/273.07 shots/match
69.4% ●Possession27/2743.6%
6.93 corners/match ●Corners27/274.26 corners/match
8.74 fouls/matchFouls27/2710.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

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