Bundesliga · 2024Sat, 29 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

FC Bayern München

DWWLD

3–2Full-time recap

FC St. Pauli

LLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Bayern München	FC St. Pauli
Shots	19 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	3.57 xG/match▲	0.97 xG/match
Possession	66%●	34%
Corners	5 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Bayern München: 19 shots, 9 on target, 3.50 xG. FC St. Pauli: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 3.50 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.7 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · FC St. Pauli10.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	FC St. Pauli	Baseline
Shots	18.7 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	6.22 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

69.4%●PossessionFC Bayern München · FC St. Pauli43.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	FC St. Pauli	Baseline
Possession	69.4%	43.6%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1FC Bayern München

0Draws

0FC St. Pauli

9 Nov 2024FC St. Pauli — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 0 · 2 too close

2.89 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/270.81 goals/match

0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.22 goals/match

2.49 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 27/271.04 xG/match

0.71 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 27/271.39 xG/match

18.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2710.9 shots/match

6.22 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2711.4 shots/match

7.85 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/273.07 shots/match

2.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.22 shots/match

69.4%●Possessionseason · 27/2743.6%

6.93 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/274.26 corners/match

2.19 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/274.89 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.74 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2710.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2730%

96%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2748%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München97.2

FC St. Pauli25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München97.2

FC St. Pauli4.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München97.2

FC St. Pauli80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München69.4

FC St. Pauli41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München2.8

FC St. Pauli36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München97.2

FC St. Pauli19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München73.6

FC St. Pauli16.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

FC Bayern München27 matchesFC St. Pauli27 matches

2.89 goals/match▲Goals scored27/270.81 goals/match

0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.22 goals/match

2.49 xG/match▲Expected goals27/271.04 xG/match

18.7 shots/match▲Shots27/2710.9 shots/match

7.85 shots/match▲Shots on target27/273.07 shots/match

69.4%●Possession27/2743.6%

6.93 corners/match●Corners27/274.26 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.74 fouls/matchFouls27/2710.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

FC Bayern München14 matchesFC St. Pauli14 matches

3.29 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.36 goals/match

2.99 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.07 xG/match

20.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.3 shots/match

8.93 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143 shots/match

71.6%●Possession14/1440.9%

7.14 corners/match●Corners14/143.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.07 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.8 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4