Bundesliga · 2024Sat, 29 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeHistorical match

Holstein Kiel

LLWDL

0–3Historical match

SV Werder Bremen

LLLWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Holstein Kiel	SV Werder Bremen
Shots	11 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	0 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.49 xG/match	1.74 xG/match▲
Possession	55%●	45%
Corners	3 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	13 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Holstein Kiel: 11 shots, 0 on target, 0.49 xG. SV Werder Bremen: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Holstein Kiel 0.49 xG · SV Werder Bremen 1.76 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.41 goals/match	1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Holstein Kiel

0Draws

1SV Werder Bremen

9 Nov 2024SV Werder Bremen — Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Holstein Kiel favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · SV Werder Bremen in 9 · 4 too close

1.41 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.59 goals/match

2.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.96 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/27▲1.46 xG/match

1.77 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.49 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲12.3 shots/match

16.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲13.8 shots/match

4.04 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/274.11 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲4.93 shots/match

44.2%Possessionseason · 27/27●49.8%

3.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/27●4.78 corners/match

6.52 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.74 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2710 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲22%

78%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2774%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Holstein Kiel30.6

SV Werder Bremen58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Holstein Kiel22.2

SV Werder Bremen41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Holstein Kiel2.8

SV Werder Bremen28.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Holstein Kiel25

SV Werder Bremen36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Holstein Kiel80.6

SV Werder Bremen30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Holstein Kiel2.8

SV Werder Bremen63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Holstein Kiel27.1

SV Werder Bremen41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Holstein Kiel27 matchesSV Werder Bremen27 matches

1.41 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.59 goals/match

2.48 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲1.96 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals27/27▲1.46 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots27/27▲12.3 shots/match

4.04 shots/matchShots on target27/274.11 shots/match

44.2%Possession27/27●49.8%

3.56 corners/matchCorners27/27●4.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls27/2710 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Holstein Kiel14 matchesSV Werder Bremen14 matches

1.29 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.79 goals/match

2.43 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.93 goals/match

1.02 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲1.39 xG/match

10.2 shots/matchShots14/14▲11.4 shots/match

3.93 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.36 shots/match

44.6%Possession14/14●48.4%

3.5 corners/matchCorners14/14●4.36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4