PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Holstein Kiel 0–3 SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

0–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SV Werder Bremen won 0–3.

Shots
1114
Shots on target
07
Expected goals
0.491.74
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

SV Werder Bremen beat Holstein Kiel 3–0. Recorded in this match (Holstein Kiel – SV Werder Bremen): shots 11–14, shots on target 0–7, expected goals 0.49–1.74, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.41 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots14 shotsHolstein Kiel 11 shots, SV Werder Bremen 14 shots
  • Shots on target0 shots7 shotsHolstein Kiel 0 shots, SV Werder Bremen 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.49 xG1.74 xGHolstein Kiel 0.49 xG, SV Werder Bremen 1.74 xG
  • Possession55%45%Holstein Kiel 55%, SV Werder Bremen 45%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersHolstein Kiel 3 corners, SV Werder Bremen 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls8 foulsHolstein Kiel 13 fouls, SV Werder Bremen 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFinn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFelix Agu · SV Werder Bremen · 59′ · 0.03 xG · goalMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 25′ · 0.04 xG · goalOliver Burke · SV Werder Bremen · 35′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmos Pieper · SV Werder Bremen · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 68′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 76′ · 0.08 xG · on targetOliver Burke · SV Werder Bremen · 5′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJens Stage · SV Werder Bremen · 7′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · SV Werder Bremen · 63′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 5′ · 0.13 xG · on targetRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 73′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 88′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 81′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedMarco Grüll · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.52 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Holstein Kiel: 11 shots, 0 on target, 0.49 xG. SV Werder Bremen: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Marvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 25′Felix Agu · SV Werder Bremen · 59′Marco Grüll · SV Werder Bremen · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Holstein Kiel 0.49 xG · SV Werder Bremen 1.76 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Holstein Kiel
0Draws
1SV Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen — Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga2–1
SV Werder Bremen — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga2–3
Holstein Kiel — SV Werder Bremen · 2. Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Holstein Kiel favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · SV Werder Bremen in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Holstein Kiel27 matchesSV Werder Bremen27 matches
1.41 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.59 goals/match
2.48 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲ 1.96 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals27/27▲ 1.46 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots27/27▲ 12.3 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on target27/274.11 shots/match
44.2%Possession27/27● 49.8%
3.56 corners/matchCorners27/27● 4.78 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls27/2710 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHolstein KielSV Werder Bremen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headHolstein Kiel — SV Werder Bremen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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