PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

TSG Hoffenheim 2–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim won 2–0.

Shots
814
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
1.721.15
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

TSG Hoffenheim beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 8–14, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 1.72–1.15, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

TSG Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

TSG Hoffenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

TSG Hoffenheim have a visible home split

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots14 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 8 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotTSG Hoffenheim 5 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.72 xG1.15 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.72 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.15 xG
  • Possession36%64%TSG Hoffenheim 36%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 64%
  • Corners4 corners7 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 4 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 7 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls11 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 18 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Moritz Jenz · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNikolas Veratschnig · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 28′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMarius Bülter · TSG Hoffenheim · 46′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHaris Tabaković · TSG Hoffenheim · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedArthur Chaves · TSG Hoffenheim · 55′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 73′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 65′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 57′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 56′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 70′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 32′ · 0.46 xG · goalAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 4′ · 0.81 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.63 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 14 shots, 1 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Andrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 4′Andrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 1.63 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.19 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1TSG Hoffenheim
1Draws
31. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga4–1
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–0
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 6 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim29 matches1. FSV Mainz 0529 matches
1.24 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 1.59 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲ 1.43 xG/match
12.6 shots/match ▲Shots29/2911.8 shots/match
4.41 shots/matchShots on target29/294.24 shots/match
49.2%Possession29/29● 50%
4.66 corners/match ●Corners29/294.55 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls29/2911.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG Hoffenheim1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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