Bundesliga · 2024Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

TSG Hoffenheim

WDLDL

2–0Full-time recap

1. FSV Mainz 05

WWDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	TSG Hoffenheim	1. FSV Mainz 05
Shots	8 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.72 xG/match▲	1.15 xG/match
Possession	36%	64%●
Corners	4 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	18 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.63 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 14 shots, 1 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 1.63 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.19 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: TSG Hoffenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: TSG Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

TSG Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

TSG Hoffenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	10 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

TSG Hoffenheim have a visible home split

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.9 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1TSG Hoffenheim

1Draws

31. FSV Mainz 05

1 Dec 20241. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–0

13 Apr 20241. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga4–1

26 Nov 2023TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1

4 Mar 20231. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–0

10 Sept 2022TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

TSG Hoffenheim favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 6 · 6 too close

1.24 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲1.59 goals/match

1.79 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.17 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 29/29▲1.43 xG/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.49 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/2911.8 shots/match

14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/2914.1 shots/match

4.41 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/294.24 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/294.66 shots/match

49.2%Possessionseason · 29/29●50%

4.66 corners/match●Cornersseason · 29/294.55 corners/match

5.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/29▲5.31 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2911.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲31%

72%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2976%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

TSG Hoffenheim41.7

1. FSV Mainz 0563.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

TSG Hoffenheim48.2

1. FSV Mainz 0537

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

TSG Hoffenheim26.9

1. FSV Mainz 0558.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

TSG Hoffenheim47.2

1. FSV Mainz 0513.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

TSG Hoffenheim69.4

1. FSV Mainz 0580.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

TSG Hoffenheim47.2

1. FSV Mainz 0541.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

TSG Hoffenheim57.6

1. FSV Mainz 0545.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim29 matches1. FSV Mainz 0529 matches

1.24 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲1.59 goals/match

1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲1.17 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲1.43 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots29/2911.8 shots/match

4.41 shots/matchShots on target29/294.24 shots/match

49.2%Possession29/29●50%

4.66 corners/match●Corners29/294.55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls29/2911.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

TSG Hoffenheim15 matches1. FSV Mainz 0515 matches

1.53 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.8 goals/match

1.93 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.4 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.42 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shots15/1510.9 shots/match

5.27 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.8 shots/match

52.3%●Possession15/1548.3%

5.33 corners/match●Corners15/153.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4