PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 2–3.

Shots
1116
Shots on target
38
Expected goals
1.342.51
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat TSG Hoffenheim 3–2. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund): shots 11–16, shots on target 3–8, expected goals 1.34–2.51, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.94 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

TSG Hoffenheim have a visible home split

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

49.2%PossessionTSG Hoffenheim · Borussia Dortmund● 59.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricTSG HoffenheimBorussia DortmundBaseline
Possession49.2%59.6%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots16 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 11 shots, Borussia Dortmund 16 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots8 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 3 shots, Borussia Dortmund 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.34 xG2.51 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.34 xG, Borussia Dortmund 2.51 xG
  • Possession37%63%TSG Hoffenheim 37%, Borussia Dortmund 63%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 2 corners, Borussia Dortmund 5 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls9 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 17 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bazoumana Touré · TSG Hoffenheim · 11′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBazoumana Touré · TSG Hoffenheim · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 44′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 74′ · 0.03 xG · goalPavel Kadeřábek · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDennis Geiger · TSG Hoffenheim · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 84′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNiklas Süle · Borussia Dortmund · 44′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 39′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedPavel Kadeřábek · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.13 xG · goalAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 35′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedWaldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.14 xG · goalDaniel Svensson · Borussia Dortmund · 85′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 9′ · 0.18 xG · on targetBazoumana Touré · TSG Hoffenheim · 58′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedHaris Tabaković · TSG Hoffenheim · 80′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 61′ · 0.22 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 7′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 20′ · 0.50 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 34′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.13 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 16 shots, 8 on target, 2.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Adam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 61′Pavel Kadeřábek · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 20′Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 74′Waldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 1.13 xG · Borussia Dortmund 2.66 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1TSG Hoffenheim
1Draws
3Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–1
Borussia Dortmund — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–3
TSG Hoffenheim — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–3
TSG Hoffenheim — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–1
Borussia Dortmund — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim31 matchesBorussia Dortmund31 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲ 1.94 goals/match
1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲ 1.58 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲ 1.82 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots31/31▲ 14.4 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲ 4.74 shots/match
49.2%Possession31/31● 59.6%
4.61 corners/matchCorners31/31● 5.81 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls31/319.58 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG HoffenheimBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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