PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Holstein Kiel 1–2 SC Freiburg · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Freiburg won 1–2.

Shots
159
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
0.981.58
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Freiburg beat Holstein Kiel 2–1. Recorded in this match (Holstein Kiel – SC Freiburg): shots 15–9, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 0.98–1.58, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots9 shotsHolstein Kiel 15 shots, SC Freiburg 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsHolstein Kiel 3 shots, SC Freiburg 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.98 xG1.58 xGHolstein Kiel 0.98 xG, SC Freiburg 1.58 xG
  • Possession60%40%Holstein Kiel 60%, SC Freiburg 40%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersHolstein Kiel 2 corners, SC Freiburg 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsHolstein Kiel 9 fouls, SC Freiburg 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJohn Tolkin · Holstein Kiel · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMagnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel · 63′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavid Zec · Holstein Kiel · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFinn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRitsu Doan · SC Freiburg · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJunior Adamu · SC Freiburg · 36′ · 0.05 xG · on targetShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Osterhage · SC Freiburg · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJunior Adamu · SC Freiburg · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBenedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAlexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel · 21′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMatthias Ginter · SC Freiburg · 24′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel · 60′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRitsu Doan · SC Freiburg · 43′ · 0.24 xG · on targetJohan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 45′ · 0.41 xG · goalLasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel · 24′ · 0.47 xG · goalLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 58′ · 0.56 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Holstein Kiel: 15 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG. SC Freiburg: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Lasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel · 24′Johan Manzambi · SC Freiburg · 45′Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Holstein Kiel 0.98 xG · SC Freiburg 1.59 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Holstein Kiel
0Draws
1SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg — Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga3–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Holstein Kiel favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Holstein Kiel33 matchesSC Freiburg33 matches
1.48 goals/matchGoals scored33/331.45 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲ 1.35 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots33/33▲ 12.2 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target33/334.33 shots/match
44%Possession33/33● 48.4%
3.61 corners/matchCorners33/33● 3.88 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls33/339.18 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 May 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHolstein KielSC Freiburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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