PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer 04 Leverkusen drew 2–2.

Shots
207
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
3.081.24
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer 04 Leverkusen drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 20–7, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 3.08–1.24, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match ▲Shots1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against13.6 shots/match9.82 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots7 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 20 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 6 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 shots
  • Expected goals3.08 xG1.24 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 3.08 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.24 xG
  • Possession48%52%1. FSV Mainz 05 48%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 52%
  • Corners8 corners3 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 8 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls13 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 14 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 66′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDanny da Costa · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 53′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNikolas Veratschnig · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hanche Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 7′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 11′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 86′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 5′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 31′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 57′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 14′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 5′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 45′ · 0.13 xG · on targetAndreas Hanche Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 4′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 54′ · 0.16 xG · goalPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 35′ · 0.20 xG · goalNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 45′ · 0.46 xG · on targetPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 7′ · 0.54 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 49′ · 0.82 xG · goalJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 63′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 20 shots, 6 on target, 3.18 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 35′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 63′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 49′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 3.18 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.29 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FSV Mainz 05
0Draws
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0534 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen34 matches
1.62 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲ 2.12 goals/match
1.26 goals/matchGoals allowed34/341.26 goals/match
1.5 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲ 1.71 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots34/34▲ 14.8 shots/match
4.41 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲ 5.62 shots/match
50.4%Possession34/34● 59.5%
4.85 corners/matchCorners34/34● 6.35 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls34/349.56 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 May 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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