PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–4 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

2–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 2–4.

Shots
199
Shots on target
105
Expected goals
2.21.16
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–2. Recorded in this match (Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Borussia Dortmund): shots 19–9, shots on target 10–5, expected goals 2.2–1.16, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2.06 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.45 corners/match ●CornersBayer 04 Leverkusen · Borussia Dortmund5.58 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBayer 04 LeverkusenBorussia DortmundBaseline
Corners6.45 corners/match5.58 corners/match4.73 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a visible home split

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match15.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots9 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 19 shots, Borussia Dortmund 9 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots5 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 10 shots, Borussia Dortmund 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.2 xG1.16 xGBayer 04 Leverkusen 2.2 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.16 xG
  • Possession62%38%Bayer 04 Leverkusen 62%, Borussia Dortmund 38%
  • Corners12 corners0 cornersBayer 04 Leverkusen 12 corners, Borussia Dortmund 0 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls8 foulsBayer 04 Leverkusen 7 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 8′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRamy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRobert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 11′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 31′ · 0.05 xG · goalPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 72′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 88′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 15′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 43′ · 0.08 xG · goalAmine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 77′ · 0.09 xG · goalFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 3′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 40′ · 0.20 xG · on targetNathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 27′ · 0.22 xG · on targetJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.29 xG · goalAmine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.31 xG · on targetJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 33′ · 0.38 xG · goalFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 41′ · 0.44 xG · on targetKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 73′ · 0.44 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 19 shots, 10 on target, 2.14 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 31′Jonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 33′Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 43′Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 73′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.14 xG · Borussia Dortmund 1.15 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2Draws
2Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–3
Borussia Dortmund — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–2
Borussia Dortmund — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bayer 04 Leverkusen favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bayer 04 Leverkusen33 matchesBorussia Dortmund33 matches
2.12 goals/matchGoals scored33/332.06 goals/match
1.24 goals/match ▲Goals allowed33/331.55 goals/match
1.72 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲ 1.82 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots33/3314.1 shots/match
5.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/334.76 shots/match
59.7% ●Possession33/3358.8%
6.45 corners/match ●Corners33/335.58 corners/match
9.45 fouls/matchFouls33/339.64 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 May 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBayer 04 LeverkusenBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headBayer 04 Leverkusen — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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