Serie A · 2023Sun, 4 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Inter

WDWWW

1–0Full-time recap

Juventus

WWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Inter	Juventus
Shots	15 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.75 xG/match▲	0.66 xG/match
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	6 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Juventus's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Juventus's recent record differs from the season

weak

Juventus's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.57 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsInter · Juventus13.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Inter	Juventus	Baseline
Shots	15.7 shots/match	13.6 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	10.2 shots/match	11.9 shots/match	12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Inter have recorded the higher season possession share.

55%●PossessionInter · Juventus47%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Inter	Juventus	Baseline
Possession	55%	47%	51.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Inter

2Draws

2Juventus

26 Nov 2023Juventus — Inter · Serie A1–1

19 Mar 2023Inter — Juventus · Serie A0–1

6 Nov 2022Juventus — Inter · Serie A2–0

3 Apr 2022Juventus — Inter · Serie A0–1

24 Oct 2021Inter — Juventus · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Inter favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Juventus in 1 · 3 too close

2.32 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/231.57 goals/match

0.45 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/230.61 goals/match

2.14 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 22/231.53 xG/match

0.84 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/23▲0.72 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2313.6 shots/match

10.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2311.9 shots/match

5.23 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/234.04 shots/match

2.77 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/232.78 shots/match

55%●Possessionseason · 22/2347%

5.73 corners/match●Cornersseason · 22/235 corners/match

3.64 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/234.65 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2312.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

64%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2352%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2391%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter77.5

Juventus42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter92.5

Juventus71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter96.7

Juventus82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter72.5

Juventus82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter17.5

Juventus42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter87.5

Juventus72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter71.2

Juventus63.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Inter22 matchesJuventus23 matches

2.32 goals/match▲Goals scored22/231.57 goals/match

0.45 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/230.61 goals/match

2.14 xG/match▲Expected goals22/231.53 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots22/2313.6 shots/match

5.23 shots/match▲Shots on target22/234.04 shots/match

55%●Possession22/2347%

5.73 corners/match●Corners22/235 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls22/2312.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Inter11 matchesJuventus12 matches

2.36 goals/match▲Goals scored11/121.58 goals/match

0.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/120.75 goals/match

2.39 xG/match▲Expected goals11/121.52 xG/match

17.4 shots/match▲Shots11/1212.7 shots/match

5.73 shots/match▲Shots on target11/123.92 shots/match

56.5%●Possession11/1248.8%

7.36 corners/match●Corners11/124.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls11/1211.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.11 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Feb 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4