PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 4 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

Lazio

WWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaLazio
Shots19 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals2.27 xG/match▲1.22 xG/match
Possession53%●47%
Corners6 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Giorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatías Vecino · Lazio · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSead Kolašinac · Atalanta · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 70′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGustav Isaksen · Lazio · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 6′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCiro Immobile · Lazio · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 76′ · 0.14 xG · goalAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 61′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 16′ · 0.21 xG · goalSead Kolašinac · Atalanta · 15′ · 0.23 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 43′ · 0.82 xG · goalCiro Immobile · Lazio · 84′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 19 shots, 5 on target, 2.31 xG. Lazio: 7 shots, 1 on target, 1.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mario Pašalić · Atalanta · 16′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 43′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 76′Ciro Immobile · Lazio · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 2.31 xG · Lazio 1.26 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.82 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Atalanta
2Draws
2Lazio
Lazio — Atalanta · Serie A3–2
Lazio — Atalanta · Serie A0–2
Atalanta — Lazio · Serie A0–2
Lazio — Atalanta · Serie A0–0
Atalanta — Lazio · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Lazio in 0 · 6 too close

1.82 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.14 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/221.05 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 22/221.22 xG/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/221.07 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2211 shots/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2212.1 shots/match
5.36 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/223.27 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/223.64 shots/match
51.5%Possessionseason · 22/22●52.3%
5.82 corners/match●Cornersseason · 22/224.95 corners/match
4.05 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/224.23 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2212.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2236%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2273%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta47.5
Lazio57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta90.8
Lazio25.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta73.3
Lazio60.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta67.5
Lazio12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta67.5
Lazio50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5
Lazio55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta86.2
Lazio33.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atalanta22 matchesLazio22 matches
1.82 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.14 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed22/221.05 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals22/221.22 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shots22/2211 shots/match
5.36 shots/match▲Shots on target22/223.27 shots/match
51.5%Possession22/22●52.3%
5.82 corners/match●Corners22/224.95 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFouls22/2212.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atalanta12 matchesLazio11 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/111.18 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111.45 goals/match
1.78 xG/match▲Expected goals12/111.2 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1111.7 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target12/113.55 shots/match
51.8%Possession12/11●53%
6.42 corners/match●Corners12/115.18 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1112.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Feb 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaLazio
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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