PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Atalanta 3–1 Lazio · Serie A

3–1Historical match

Lazio

WWWWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atalanta won 3–1.

Shots
197
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
2.271.22
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atalanta beat Lazio 3–1. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Lazio): shots 19–7, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 2.27–1.22, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.82 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots7 shotsAtalanta 19 shots, Lazio 7 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotAtalanta 5 shots, Lazio 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.27 xG1.22 xGAtalanta 2.27 xG, Lazio 1.22 xG
  • Possession53%47%Atalanta 53%, Lazio 47%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerAtalanta 6 corners, Lazio 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls14 foulsAtalanta 13 fouls, Lazio 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Giorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatías Vecino · Lazio · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSead Kolašinac · Atalanta · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 70′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGustav Isaksen · Lazio · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 6′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCiro Immobile · Lazio · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 76′ · 0.14 xG · goalAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 61′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 16′ · 0.21 xG · goalSead Kolašinac · Atalanta · 15′ · 0.23 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 43′ · 0.82 xG · goalCiro Immobile · Lazio · 84′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 19 shots, 5 on target, 2.31 xG. Lazio: 7 shots, 1 on target, 1.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Mario Pašalić · Atalanta · 16′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 43′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 76′Ciro Immobile · Lazio · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 2.31 xG · Lazio 1.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atalanta
2Draws
2Lazio
Lazio — Atalanta · Serie A3–2
Lazio — Atalanta · Serie A0–2
Atalanta — Lazio · Serie A0–2
Lazio — Atalanta · Serie A0–0
Atalanta — Lazio · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Lazio in 0 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta22 matchesLazio22 matches
1.82 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/221.14 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed22/221.05 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/221.22 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots22/2211 shots/match
5.36 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/223.27 shots/match
51.5%Possession22/22● 52.3%
5.82 corners/match ●Corners22/224.95 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls22/2212.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Feb 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaLazio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headAtalanta — Lazio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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