Serie A · 2023Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Cagliari

DWLLL

1–3Full-time recap

Lazio

WWWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Cagliari	Lazio
Shots	13 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	0.78 xG/match	1.34 xG/match▲
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	7 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	6 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lazio's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lazio's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.8 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible home split

moderate

Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.2 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lazio have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.8%PossessionCagliari · Lazio●52.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Cagliari	Lazio	Baseline
Possession	43.8%	52.4%	51.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Cagliari

1Draws

2Lazio

2 Dec 2023Lazio — Cagliari · Serie A1–0

5 Mar 2022Cagliari — Lazio · Serie A0–3

19 Sept 2021Lazio — Cagliari · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Lazio in 9 · 2 too close

0.92 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/23▲1.22 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/23▲1.04 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/23▲1.23 xG/match

1.52 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 24/23▲1.06 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2311.1 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/23▲12.2 shots/match

3.58 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/233.35 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/23▲3.74 shots/match

43.8%Possessionseason · 24/23●52.4%

4.92 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/23●5.09 corners/match

6.29 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/23▲4.35 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2312.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/23▲35%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/23▲74%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari12.5

Lazio62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari37.5

Lazio28.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari32.5

Lazio60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari77.5

Lazio12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari62.5

Lazio42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari47.5

Lazio72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari48.8

Lazio38.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Cagliari24 matchesLazio23 matches

0.92 goals/matchGoals scored24/23▲1.22 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed24/23▲1.04 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals24/23▲1.23 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots24/2311.1 shots/match

3.58 shots/match▲Shots on target24/233.35 shots/match

43.8%Possession24/23●52.4%

4.92 corners/matchCorners24/23●5.09 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls24/2312.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Cagliari12 matchesLazio12 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.33 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.42 goals/match

1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.21 xG/match

15.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.8 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.67 shots/match

44.7%Possession12/12●53.2%

5.58 corners/match●Corners12/125.42 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.88 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4