Serie A · 2023Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

DLWWW

2–4Full-time recap

Inter

DWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Roma	Inter
Shots	8 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.68 xG/match	0.95 xG/match▲
Possession	47%	53%●
Corners	3 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	9 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.75 goals/match	1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Roma

0Draws

4Inter

29 Oct 2023Inter — Roma · Serie A1–0

6 May 2023Roma — Inter · Serie A0–2

1 Oct 2022Inter — Roma · Serie A1–2

23 Apr 2022Inter — Roma · Serie A3–1

4 Dec 2021Roma — Inter · Serie A0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Inter in 9 · 4 too close

1.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/23▲2.39 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/23▲0.52 goals/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/23▲2.08 xG/match

0.95 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 24/23▲0.83 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/23▲15.5 shots/match

10.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/2310.1 shots/match

3.92 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/23▲5.26 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/23▲2.78 shots/match

53.5%Possessionseason · 24/23●55%

4.58 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/23●5.83 corners/match

3.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/233.61 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2311.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/23▲61%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/23▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma67.5

Inter77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma55.8

Inter92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma69.2

Inter96.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma32.5

Inter72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma57.5

Inter20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma42.5

Inter92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma46.2

Inter73.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma24 matchesInter23 matches

1.75 goals/matchGoals scored24/23▲2.39 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed24/23▲0.52 goals/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goals24/23▲2.08 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots24/23▲15.5 shots/match

3.92 shots/matchShots on target24/23▲5.26 shots/match

53.5%Possession24/23●55%

4.58 corners/matchCorners24/23●5.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls24/2311.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma13 matchesInter12 matches

2.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/122.42 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed13/12▲0.5 goals/match

1.52 xG/matchExpected goals13/12▲1.8 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots13/1213.8 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on target13/12▲4.83 shots/match

51.8%Possession13/12●53.5%

4.85 corners/match●Corners13/124.42 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFouls13/1211.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.89 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4