PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Roma 2–4 Inter · Serie A

Roma

DLWWW
2–4Historical match

Inter

DWWWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Inter won 2–4.

Shots
810
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
0.680.95
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Inter beat Roma 4–2. Recorded in this match (Roma – Inter): shots 8–10, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 0.68–0.95, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots10 shotsRoma 8 shots, Inter 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsRoma 3 shots, Inter 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.68 xG0.95 xGRoma 0.68 xG, Inter 0.95 xG
  • Possession47%53%Roma 47%, Inter 53%
  • Corners3 corners8 cornersRoma 3 corners, Inter 8 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls14 foulsRoma 9 fouls, Inter 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Roma
0Draws
4Inter
Inter — Roma · Serie A1–0
Roma — Inter · Serie A0–2
Inter — Roma · Serie A1–2
Inter — Roma · Serie A3–1
Roma — Inter · Serie A0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Roma favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Inter in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Roma24 matchesInter23 matches
1.75 goals/matchGoals scored24/23▲ 2.39 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed24/23▲ 0.52 goals/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals24/23▲ 2.08 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots24/23▲ 15.5 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target24/23▲ 5.26 shots/match
53.5%Possession24/23● 55%
4.58 corners/matchCorners24/23● 5.83 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls24/2311.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRomaInter
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headRoma — Inter
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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