PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Torino

LWDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSassuoloTorino
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals0.43 xG/match1.04 xG/match▲
Possession42%58%●
Corners5 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Matheus Henrique · Sassuolo · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vlašić · Torino · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vlašić · Torino · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArmand Laurienté · Sassuolo · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValentino Lazaro · Torino · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDavid Okereke · Torino · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArmand Laurienté · Sassuolo · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSamuele Ricci · Torino · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Pinamonti · Sassuolo · 5′ · 0.03 xG · goalMatheus Henrique · Sassuolo · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaoul Bellanova · Torino · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNedim Bajrami · Sassuolo · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIvan Ilić · Torino · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGrégoire Defrel · Sassuolo · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArmand Laurienté · Sassuolo · 70′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKristian Thorstvedt · Sassuolo · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Pinamonti · Sassuolo · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vlašić · Torino · 29′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Pinamonti · Sassuolo · 57′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 9′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Sassuolo: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.45 xG. Torino: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Andrea Pinamonti · Sassuolo · 5′Duván Zapata · Torino · 9′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sassuolo 0.45 xG · Torino 1.05 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Sassuolo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.26 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.26 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Sassuolo
2Draws
2Torino
Torino — Sassuolo · Serie A2–1
Sassuolo — Torino · Serie A1–1
Torino — Sassuolo · Serie A0–1
Torino — Sassuolo · Serie A1–1
Sassuolo — Torino · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Sassuolo favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Torino in 6 · 2 too close

1.26 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/230.91 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲0.87 goals/match
1.15 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/231.03 xG/match
1.52 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/23▲0.96 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2310.8 shots/match
14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲10.9 shots/match
4.52 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/233.17 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.91 shots/match
44.7%Possessionseason · 23/23●52.4%
5.26 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/234.39 corners/match
5.7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲3.39 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
4%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲48%
70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2357%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sassuolo27.5
Torino60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sassuolo65.8
Torino10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sassuolo24.2
Torino72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sassuolo92.5
Torino2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sassuolo2.5
Torino37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sassuolo82.5
Torino27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sassuolo57.5
Torino20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Sassuolo23 matchesTorino23 matches
1.26 goals/match▲Goals scored23/230.91 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲0.87 goals/match
1.15 xG/match▲Expected goals23/231.03 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots23/2310.8 shots/match
4.52 shots/match▲Shots on target23/233.17 shots/match
44.7%Possession23/23●52.4%
5.26 corners/match●Corners23/234.39 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Sassuolo11 matchesTorino12 matches
1.27 goals/match▲Goals scored11/120.75 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed11/12▲1.17 goals/match
1.2 xG/match▲Expected goals11/120.84 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shots11/1210.3 shots/match
4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target11/122.58 shots/match
44.5%Possession11/12●50.2%
5.64 corners/match●Corners11/122.58 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls11/1213.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.34 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSassuoloTorino
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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