PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Mon, 5 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

LDLWW
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRomaCagliari
Shots20 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.71 xG/match▲0.56 xG/match
Possession53%●47%
Corners7 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Leandro Paredes · Roma · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 18′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPaulo Dybala · Roma · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNahitan Nández · Cagliari · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Petagna · Cagliari · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Petagna · Cagliari · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Azzi · Cagliari · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · Roma · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 68′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPaulo Dybala · Roma · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Viola · Cagliari · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Dossena · Cagliari · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 78′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAndrea Petagna · Cagliari · 19′ · 0.05 xG · on targetGianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDean Huijsen · Roma · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDean Huijsen · Roma · 59′ · 0.08 xG · goalGianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 14′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 57′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 54′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDean Huijsen · Roma · 58′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEdoardo Bove · Roma · 60′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRick Karsdorp · Roma · 36′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 43′ · 0.16 xG · on targetBryan Cristante · Roma · 50′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 72′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · Roma · 9′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 2′ · 0.22 xG · goalPaulo Dybala · Roma · 23′ · 0.24 xG · goalPaulo Dybala · Roma · 51′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 20 shots, 6 on target, 2.76 xG. Cagliari: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Lorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 2′Paulo Dybala · Roma · 23′Paulo Dybala · Roma · 51′Dean Huijsen · Roma · 59′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 2.76 xG · Cagliari 0.57 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Cagliari have a visible away split

moderate

Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

weak

Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.74 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.74 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.8%●PossessionRoma · Cagliari43.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRomaCagliariBaseline
Possession53.8%43.8%51.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Roma
0Draws
0Cagliari
Cagliari — Roma · Serie A1–4
Roma — Cagliari · Serie A1–0
Cagliari — Roma · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 3 too close

1.74 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/230.91 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.83 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/231.13 xG/match
0.95 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 23/231.52 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/2312.6 shots/match
10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2313.2 shots/match
3.96 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/233.48 shots/match
3.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/234.13 shots/match
53.8%●Possessionseason · 23/2343.8%
4.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/23●4.83 corners/match
3.3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/236.22 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2312.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2313%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2361%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma67.5
Cagliari12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma58.3
Cagliari34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma78.3
Cagliari36.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma32.5
Cagliari77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma57.5
Cagliari65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma42.5
Cagliari47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma48.1
Cagliari48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma23 matchesCagliari23 matches
1.74 goals/match▲Goals scored23/230.91 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.83 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals23/231.13 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots23/2312.6 shots/match
3.96 shots/match▲Shots on target23/233.48 shots/match
53.8%●Possession23/2343.8%
4.65 corners/matchCorners23/23●4.83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls23/2312.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma12 matchesCagliari12 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.58 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122 goals/match
1.59 xG/match▲Expected goals12/120.77 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1210 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target12/122.67 shots/match
52.3%●Possession12/1243%
5 corners/match●Corners12/124.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 5 Feb 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRomaCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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