PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 3 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Napoli

WLDDW
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNapoliJuventus
Shots14 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.11 xG/match▲1.66 xG/match
Possession71%●29%
Corners2 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Alcaraz · Juventus · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabio Miretti · Juventus · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHamed Junior Traorè · Napoli · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Alcaraz · Juventus · 67′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFederico Chiesa · Juventus · 81′ · 0.03 xG · goalSamuel Iling Junior · Juventus · 21′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFederico Chiesa · Juventus · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHamed Junior Traorè · Napoli · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFederico Chiesa · Juventus · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 42′ · 0.05 xG · goalGiovanni Di Lorenzo · Napoli · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Politano · Napoli · 28′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMathías Olivera · Napoli · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 61′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 10′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Di Lorenzo · Napoli · 78′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedManuel Locatelli · Juventus · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 37′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAlex Sandro · Juventus · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Politano · Napoli · 38′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Cambiaso · Juventus · 53′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Iling Junior · Juventus · 31′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 34′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedFrank Anguissa · Napoli · 42′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 45′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedDaniele Rugani · Juventus · 90′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedFrank Anguissa · Napoli · 28′ · 0.38 xG · on targetGiacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 88′ · 0.65 xG · goalVictor Osimhen · Napoli · 88′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Napoli: 14 shots, 7 on target, 2.70 xG. Juventus: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 42′Giacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 88′Federico Chiesa · Juventus · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Napoli 2.70 xG · Juventus 1.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Napoli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Napoli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Napoli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Napoli have a visible home split

moderate

Napoli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season16.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19.9 shots/match16.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Napoli show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsNapoli · Juventus14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNapoliJuventusBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Napoli
1Draws
1Juventus
Juventus — Napoli · Serie A1–0
Juventus — Napoli · Serie A0–1
Napoli — Juventus · Serie A5–1
Juventus — Napoli · Serie A1–1
Napoli — Juventus · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Juventus in 5 · 4 too close

1.56 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/271.56 goals/match
1.15 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.78 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/271.58 xG/match
1.01 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.75 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2714.2 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2711.7 shots/match
5.37 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/274.15 shots/match
3.37 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3.07 shots/match
61.7%●Possessionseason · 27/2748.1%
6.04 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/275.04 corners/match
3.44 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/274.48 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.96 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲44%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli97.5
Juventus42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli86.7
Juventus75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli80.8
Juventus84.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli62.5
Juventus87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli7.5
Juventus60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli92.5
Juventus67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli71.2
Juventus69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Napoli27 matchesJuventus27 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored27/271.56 goals/match
1.15 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲0.78 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goals27/271.58 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots27/2714.2 shots/match
5.37 shots/match▲Shots on target27/274.15 shots/match
61.7%●Possession27/2748.1%
6.04 corners/match●Corners27/275.04 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.96 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Napoli13 matchesJuventus14 matches
1.46 goals/matchGoals scored13/14▲1.57 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/14▲0.93 goals/match
1.85 xG/match▲Expected goals13/141.56 xG/match
19.9 shots/match▲Shots13/1413.4 shots/match
6.15 shots/match▲Shots on target13/143.93 shots/match
63.7%●Possession13/1447.9%
7.23 corners/match●Corners13/144.36 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.15 fouls/matchFouls13/1412 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.34 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Mar 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNapoliJuventus
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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