PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 3 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

Bologna

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaBologna
Shots11 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.35 xG/match▲1.33 xG/match
Possession55%●45%
Corners6 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Stefan Posch · Bologna · 32′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 20′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 61′ · 0.02 xG · goalAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Ruggeri · Atalanta · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Bologna · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBerat Djimsiti · Atalanta · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 86′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 28′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 73′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 2′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Fabbian · Bologna · 11′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Calafiori · Bologna · 54′ · 0.18 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 28′ · 0.74 xG · goalJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 57′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.38 xG. Bologna: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ademola Lookman · Atalanta · 28′Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 57′Lewis Ferguson · Bologna · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.38 xG · Bologna 1.36 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atalanta. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atalanta.

3.89 days▲Rest daysAtalanta · Bologna8.89 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtalantaBolognaBaseline
Rest days3.89 days8.89 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Atalanta
1Draws
2Bologna
Bologna — Atalanta · Serie A1–0
Atalanta — Bologna · Serie A0–2
Bologna — Atalanta · Serie A1–2
Bologna — Atalanta · Serie A0–1
Atalanta — Bologna · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Bologna in 4 · 4 too close

1.81 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.52 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.89 goals/match
1.53 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 27/271.26 xG/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.99 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2712.3 shots/match
11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲10.9 shots/match
5.41 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/274.41 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3.41 shots/match
50.5%Possessionseason · 27/27●57.3%
5.67 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/273.96 corners/match
4.15 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/274.48 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
41%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2741%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2781%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta47.5
Bologna87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta85.8
Bologna62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta63.3
Bologna82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta77.5
Bologna7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta72.5
Bologna42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta87.5
Bologna12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta83.8
Bologna43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atalanta27 matchesBologna27 matches
1.81 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.52 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲0.89 goals/match
1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals27/271.26 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shots27/2712.3 shots/match
5.41 shots/match▲Shots on target27/274.41 shots/match
50.5%Possession27/27●57.3%
5.67 corners/match●Corners27/273.96 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2712 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atalanta14 matchesBologna13 matches
2.21 goals/match▲Goals scored14/131.15 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/131.31 goals/match
1.94 xG/match▲Expected goals14/131.18 xG/match
16.7 shots/match▲Shots14/1310.8 shots/match
6.79 shots/match▲Shots on target14/134.31 shots/match
52.4%Possession14/13●55.6%
6.71 corners/match●Corners14/133.46 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1312.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.89 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Mar 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaBologna
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Atalanta vs Bologna — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath