PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Atalanta 1–2 Bologna · Serie A

1–2Historical match

Bologna

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A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bologna won 1–2.

Shots
1111
Shots on target
26
Expected goals
1.351.33
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bologna beat Atalanta 2–1. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Bologna): shots 11–11, shots on target 2–6, expected goals 1.35–1.33, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atalanta.

3.89 days ▲Rest daysAtalanta · Bologna8.89 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtalantaBolognaBaseline
Rest days3.89 days8.89 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots11 shotsAtalanta 11 shots, Bologna 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots6 shotsAtalanta 2 shots, Bologna 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.35 xG1.33 xGAtalanta 1.35 xG, Bologna 1.33 xG
  • Possession55%45%Atalanta 55%, Bologna 45%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersAtalanta 6 corners, Bologna 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsAtalanta 11 fouls, Bologna 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Stefan Posch · Bologna · 32′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 20′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 61′ · 0.02 xG · goalAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Ruggeri · Atalanta · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Bologna · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBerat Djimsiti · Atalanta · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 86′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 28′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 73′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 2′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Fabbian · Bologna · 11′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Calafiori · Bologna · 54′ · 0.18 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 28′ · 0.74 xG · goalJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 57′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.38 xG. Bologna: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ademola Lookman · Atalanta · 28′Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 57′Lewis Ferguson · Bologna · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.38 xG · Bologna 1.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atalanta
1Draws
2Bologna
Bologna — Atalanta · Serie A1–0
Atalanta — Bologna · Serie A0–2
Bologna — Atalanta · Serie A1–2
Bologna — Atalanta · Serie A0–1
Atalanta — Bologna · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Bologna in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta27 matchesBologna27 matches
1.81 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271.52 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲ 0.89 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.26 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots27/2712.3 shots/match
5.41 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/274.41 shots/match
50.5%Possession27/27● 57.3%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners27/273.96 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2712 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Mar 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaBologna
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headAtalanta — Bologna
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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