PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lazio

WLLLW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLazioJuventus
Shots16 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.07 xG/match▲0.54 xG/match
Possession65%●35%
Corners7 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alessio Romagnoli · Lazio · 19′ · 0.00 xG · on targetDaichi Kamada · Lazio · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 87′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 26′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFederico Chiesa · Juventus · 43′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMario Gila Fuentes · Lazio · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniele Rugani · Juventus · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlessio Romagnoli · Lazio · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBremer · Juventus · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatías Vecino · Lazio · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBremer · Juventus · 10′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Cambiaso · Juventus · 52′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNicolò Casale · Lazio · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDaichi Kamada · Lazio · 22′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedManuel Locatelli · Juventus · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 17′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFederico Chiesa · Juventus · 41′ · 0.09 xG · on targetKenan Yıldız · Juventus · 71′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFederico Chiesa · Juventus · 53′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAdam Marušić · Lazio · 90′ · 0.13 xG · goalAdam Marušić · Lazio · 73′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 20′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMario Gila Fuentes · Lazio · 29′ · 0.19 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lazio: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.07 xG. Juventus: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Adam Marušić · Lazio · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lazio 1.07 xG · Juventus 0.56 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lazio's last-five shots average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lazio's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lazio
1Draws
3Juventus
Juventus — Lazio · Serie A3–1
Lazio — Juventus · Serie A2–1
Juventus — Lazio · Serie A3–0
Juventus — Lazio · Serie A2–2
Lazio — Juventus · Serie A0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lazio favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Juventus in 11 · 2 too close

1.23 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.47 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲0.8 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/30▲1.52 xG/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/30▲0.74 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲14.3 shots/match
12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲11.5 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲4.07 shots/match
3.93 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲3.07 shots/match
52.3%●Possessionseason · 30/3048.4%
5.1 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/30●5.13 corners/match
4.8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲4.43 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3012.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲43%
77%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio62.5
Juventus42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio34.2
Juventus75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio62.5
Juventus84.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio12.5
Juventus87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio37.5
Juventus47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio62.5
Juventus67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio37.5
Juventus66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lazio30 matchesJuventus30 matches
1.23 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.47 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲0.8 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲1.52 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots30/30▲14.3 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲4.07 shots/match
52.3%●Possession30/3048.4%
5.1 corners/matchCorners30/30●5.13 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.9 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lazio15 matchesJuventus15 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.47 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/150.93 goals/match
1.3 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲1.49 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots15/15▲13.1 shots/match
3.53 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲3.87 shots/match
52.2%●Possession15/1547%
5.2 corners/match●Corners15/154.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLazioJuventus
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Lazio vs Juventus — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath