Serie A · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fiorentina

LDWDD

1–2Full-time recap

Milan

LDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fiorentina	Milan
Shots	17 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.38 xG/match	3.1 xG/match▲
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	7 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fiorentina: 17 shots, 7 on target, 1.42 xG. Milan: 13 shots, 9 on target, 2.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 1.42 xG · Milan 2.10 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.45 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Fiorentina

0Draws

3Milan

25 Nov 2023Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0

4 Mar 2023Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A2–1

13 Nov 2022Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A2–1

1 May 2022Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0

20 Nov 2021Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A4–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 6 · 5 too close

1.45 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/30▲1.9 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/301.13 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 29/30▲1.64 xG/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 29/30▲1.2 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/3013.9 shots/match

10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/3013.5 shots/match

4.59 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/30▲5.37 shots/match

4.24 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/304.07 shots/match

56.4%●Possessionseason · 29/3056.1%

5.17 corners/match●Cornersseason · 29/304.6 corners/match

3.17 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/304.2 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/3011.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/30▲37%

69%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/30▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina87.5

Milan82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina71.7

Milan87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina65

Milan54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina37.5

Milan47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina67.5

Milan22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina72.5

Milan37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina72.5

Milan57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fiorentina29 matchesMilan30 matches

1.45 goals/matchGoals scored29/30▲1.9 goals/match

1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed29/301.13 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals29/30▲1.64 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots29/3013.9 shots/match

4.59 shots/matchShots on target29/30▲5.37 shots/match

56.4%●Possession29/3056.1%

5.17 corners/match●Corners29/304.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls29/3011.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fiorentina15 matchesMilan16 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored15/16▲2.13 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/161.63 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals15/16▲1.71 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots15/1614 shots/match

5.13 shots/matchShots on target15/16▲5.69 shots/match

56.5%Possession15/16●58.5%

5.4 corners/match●Corners15/164.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1611.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.2 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples29 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4