PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Milan 3–0 Lecce · Serie A

Milan

DWWWW
3–0Historical match

Lecce

LDLWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 3–0.

Shots
1611
Shots on target
87
Expected goals
1.490.53
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Milan beat Lecce 3–0. Recorded in this match (Milan – Lecce): shots 16–11, shots on target 8–7, expected goals 1.49–0.53, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.84 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.84 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce have a visible away split

moderate

Lecce's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.4% ●PossessionMilan · Lecce43.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMilanLecceBaseline
Possession56.4%43.4%50.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots11 shotsMilan 16 shots, Lecce 11 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots7 shotsMilan 8 shots, Lecce 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.49 xG0.53 xGMilan 1.49 xG, Lecce 0.53 xG
  • Possession64%36%Milan 64%, Lecce 36%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerMilan 5 corners, Lecce 1 corner
  • Fouls8 fouls8 foulsMilan 8 fouls, Lecce 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Santiago Pierotti · Lecce · 88′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLorenzo Venuti · Lecce · 12′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Milan · 14′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTheo Hernández · Milan · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Pierotti · Lecce · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 42′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYunus Musah · Milan · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 6′ · 0.04 xG · goalJoan González · Lecce · 25′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 60′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTheo Hernández · Milan · 68′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIsmaël Bennacer · Milan · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Venuti · Lecce · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoan González · Lecce · 3′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 78′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoan González · Lecce · 29′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Lecce · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · Milan · 8′ · 0.09 xG · on targetPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 76′ · 0.09 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Milan · 61′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLuka Jović · Milan · 82′ · 0.14 xG · on targetLuka Jović · Milan · 82′ · 0.17 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Milan · 20′ · 0.18 xG · goalRafael Leão · Milan · 57′ · 0.54 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 16 shots, 8 on target, 1.54 xG. Lecce: 11 shots, 7 on target, 0.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Christian Pulišić · Milan · 6′Olivier Giroud · Milan · 20′Rafael Leão · Milan · 57′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 1.54 xG · Lecce 0.52 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Milan
2Draws
0Lecce
Lecce — Milan · Serie A2–2
Milan — Lecce · Serie A2–0
Lecce — Milan · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan31 matchesLecce31 matches
1.94 goals/match ▲Goals scored31/310.84 goals/match
1.1 goals/match ▲Goals allowed31/311.55 goals/match
1.63 xG/match ▲Expected goals31/311.1 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots31/3113.6 shots/match
5.45 shots/match ▲Shots on target31/314.06 shots/match
56.4% ●Possession31/3143.4%
4.61 corners/match ●Corners31/314.42 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls31/3113.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanLecce
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headMilan — Lecce
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required