Serie A · 2023Mon, 1 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lecce

LLDLW

0–0Full-time recap

Roma

WWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lecce	Roma
Shots	27 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.82 xG/match▲	1.32 xG/match
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	8 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lecce: 27 shots, 6 on target, 1.81 xG. Roma: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 1.81 xG · Roma 1.32 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lecce's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.87 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.87 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce have a visible home split

moderate

Lecce's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.9 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.7%PossessionLecce · Roma●54.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Lecce	Roma	Baseline
Possession	43.7%	54.6%	50.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lecce

1Draws

2Roma

5 Nov 2023Roma — Lecce · Serie A2–1

11 Feb 2023Lecce — Roma · Serie A1–1

9 Oct 2022Roma — Lecce · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Roma in 9 · 3 too close

0.87 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.83 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.17 goals/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/30▲1.38 xG/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.01 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3011.8 shots/match

13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲11.9 shots/match

3.97 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/304 shots/match

4.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲3.7 shots/match

43.7%Possessionseason · 30/30●54.6%

4.53 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/304.17 corners/match

5.1 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲4.23 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3012.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲30%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce12.5

Roma72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce45

Roma59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce25

Roma69.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce92.5

Roma2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce87.5

Roma77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce32.5

Roma15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce60.6

Roma46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lecce30 matchesRoma30 matches

0.87 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.83 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1.17 goals/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲1.38 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shots30/3011.8 shots/match

3.97 shots/matchShots on target30/304 shots/match

43.7%Possession30/30●54.6%

4.53 corners/match●Corners30/304.17 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lecce15 matchesRoma15 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.4 goals/match

1.47 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.33 goals/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals15/151.3 xG/match

15.9 shots/match▲Shots15/1511 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.87 shots/match

45.6%Possession15/15●56.4%

5.27 corners/match●Corners15/153.87 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 1 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4