Serie A · 2024Fri, 17 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

LWDWD

3–1Full-time recap

Genoa

DLWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Roma	Genoa
Shots	16 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.57 xG/match▲	0.5 xG/match
Possession	53%●	47%
Corners	3 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Roma have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.48 goals/match	1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.9%●PossessionRoma · Genoa43.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Roma	Genoa	Baseline
Possession	55.9%	43.5%	50.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Roma

2Draws

1Genoa

15 Sept 2024Genoa — Roma · Serie A1–1

19 May 2024Roma — Genoa · Serie A1–0

28 Sept 2023Genoa — Roma · Serie A4–1

5 Feb 2022Roma — Genoa · Serie A0–0

21 Nov 2021Genoa — Roma · Serie A0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Genoa in 1 · 3 too close

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/210.86 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.43 goals/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 21/210.99 xG/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/211.42 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2110.7 shots/match

12.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2113.5 shots/match

4.52 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/213.29 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/214.52 shots/match

55.9%●Possessionseason · 21/2143.5%

3.9 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/21●3.95 corners/match

4.19 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.48 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲33%

71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2162%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma77.5

Genoa17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma62.5

Genoa15.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma47.5

Genoa35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma37.5

Genoa42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma22.5

Genoa57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma17.5

Genoa27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma42.5

Genoa31.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma21 matchesGenoa21 matches

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scored21/210.86 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.43 goals/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goals21/210.99 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots21/2110.7 shots/match

4.52 shots/match▲Shots on target21/213.29 shots/match

55.9%●Possession21/2143.5%

3.9 corners/matchCorners21/21●3.95 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma11 matchesGenoa10 matches

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scored11/100.8 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/101.4 goals/match

1.74 xG/match▲Expected goals11/100.89 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots11/109.2 shots/match

5.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/102.5 shots/match

56.6%●Possession11/1042.4%

4.27 corners/match●Corners11/103.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1013.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.34 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Jan 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4