Serie A · 2024Sun, 12 Jan 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Genoa

DDLWD

1–0Full-time recap

Parma

LLLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Genoa	Parma
Shots	14 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.06 xG/match▲	0.3 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	6 corners/match	9 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Genoa: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.19 xG. Parma: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Genoa 1.19 xG · Parma 0.45 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Parma's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.25 goals/match	1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Genoa

0Draws

0Parma

4 Nov 2024Parma — Genoa · Serie A0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Parma in 5 · 2 too close

0.85 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲1.25 goals/match

1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.75 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 20/20▲1.2 xG/match

1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 20/201.92 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲12.2 shots/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2016 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲3.75 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/205.2 shots/match

43.4%Possessionseason · 20/20●44.1%

4.05 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/20●5.05 corners/match

5.6 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/206.65 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/209.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2010%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa12.5

Parma27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa16.7

Parma45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa43.3

Parma7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa42.5

Parma92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa60

Parma2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa22.5

Parma67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa31.2

Parma40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Genoa20 matchesParma20 matches

0.85 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲1.25 goals/match

1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.75 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲1.2 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots20/20▲12.2 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲3.75 shots/match

43.4%Possession20/20●44.1%

4.05 corners/matchCorners20/20●5.05 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls20/209.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Genoa11 matchesParma10 matches

0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/100.9 goals/match

1.45 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/101.7 goals/match

1.08 xG/match▲Expected goals11/100.88 xG/match

12.1 shots/matchShots11/1011.5 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target11/103.5 shots/match

44.5%●Possession11/1040.9%

4.27 corners/matchCorners11/10●5.7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls11/108.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.77 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Jan 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4