La Liga · 2023Fri, 1 Sept 2023, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Almería

LLD

2–3Full-time recap

Celta Vigo

LDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Almería	Celta Vigo
Shots	16 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.98 xG/match▲	1.54 xG/match
Possession	63%●	37%
Corners	6 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Almería: 16 shots, 5 on target, 3.02 xG. Celta Vigo: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Almería 3.02 xG · Celta Vigo 1.52 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Almería's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Almería have a visible home split

weak

Almería's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	18.3 shots/match	15 shots/match	12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Celta Vigo show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15 shots/match▲ShotsAlmería · Celta Vigo13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Almería	Celta Vigo	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	12 shots/match
Shots against	15 shots/match	12 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.25 corners/matchCornersAlmería · Celta Vigo●5.5 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Almería	Celta Vigo	Baseline
Corners	5.25 corners/match	5.5 corners/match	4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Almería

1Draws

0Celta Vigo

2 Apr 2023Celta Vigo — Almería · La Liga2–2

29 Oct 2022Almería — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Almería favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 0 · 13 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41.5 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.23 xG/match

1.81 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.5 xG/match

15 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/413.8 shots/match

15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/412 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/44.75 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/43.75 shots/match

53.5%●Possessionseason · 4/443.8%

5.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/4●5.5 corners/match

5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/45.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/412.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Almería67.5

Celta Vigo22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Almería61.7

Celta Vigo55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Almería15.8

Celta Vigo50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Almería77.5

Celta Vigo97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Almería62.5

Celta Vigo40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Almería72.5

Celta Vigo77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Almería74.4

Celta Vigo65.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Almería4 matchesCelta Vigo4 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored4/41 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.5 goals/match

1.49 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.23 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shots4/413.8 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44.75 shots/match

53.5%●Possession4/443.8%

5.25 corners/matchCorners4/4●5.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Almería3 matchesCelta Vigo2 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored3/2—

2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/2—

1.9 xG/matchExpected goals3/2—

18.3 shots/matchShots3/2—

6 shots/matchShots on target3/2—

55.3%Possession3/2—

6 corners/matchCorners3/2—

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls3/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.02 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Sept 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4