PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Fri, 15 Sept 2023, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoDeportivo Alavés
Shots20 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals2.58 xG/match▲0.67 xG/match
Possession52%●48%
Corners5 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 9′ · 0.01 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 50′ · 0.01 xG · on targetÁlex Sola · Deportivo Alavés · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIván Balliu · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKike García · Deportivo Alavés · 38′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano · 64′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKike García · Deportivo Alavés · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano · 38′ · 0.07 xG · on targetÓscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 30′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKike García · Deportivo Alavés · 62′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Sola · Deportivo Alavés · 47′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés · 62′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 8′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 61′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLuis Rioja · Deportivo Alavés · 21′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedKike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano · 52′ · 0.22 xG · on targetRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 84′ · 0.24 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 84′ · 0.32 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 82′ · 0.43 xG · goalIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 43′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 20 shots, 11 on target, 2.70 xG. Deportivo Alavés: 9 shots, 1 on target, 0.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 43′Jorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 2.70 xG · Deportivo Alavés 0.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Deportivo Alavés11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoDeportivo AlavésBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

18 fouls/matchFoulsRayo Vallecano · Deportivo Alavés15.2 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoDeportivo AlavésBaseline
Fouls18 fouls/match15.2 fouls/match13.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Rayo Vallecano
0Draws
1Deportivo Alavés
Deportivo Alavés — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–0
Rayo Vallecano — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Alavés in 5 · 2 too close

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.78 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/50.95 xG/match
1.56 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/5▲1.38 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/511.2 shots/match
14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 5/5▲13.6 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 5/52.6 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/5▲4.8 shots/match
48.6%●Possessionseason · 5/545.8%
5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 5/53.4 corners/match
4.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 5/5▲3.4 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
18 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/515.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
60%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/520%
60%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 5/540%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano37.5
Deportivo Alavés32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano69.2
Deportivo Alavés25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano19.2
Deportivo Alavés32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano87.5
Deportivo Alavés47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano80
Deportivo Alavés67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano65
Deportivo Alavés17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano78.8
Deportivo Alavés33.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano5 matchesDeportivo Alavés5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.78 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.95 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
48.6%●Possession5/545.8%
5 corners/match●Corners5/53.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
18 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano2 matchesDeportivo Alavés3 matches
—Goals scored2/30 goals/match
—Goals allowed2/31.33 goals/match
—Expected goals2/30.54 xG/match
—Shots2/311.7 shots/match
—Shots on target2/31.67 shots/match
—Possession2/352.3%
—Corners2/34 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
—Fouls2/314.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 15 Sept 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoDeportivo Alavés
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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