PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sun, 24 Sept 2023, 14:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoVillarreal
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match6 shots/match
Expected goals1.21 xG/match1.64 xG/match▲
Possession41%59%●
Corners2 corners/match8 corners/match●
Fouls20 fouls/match18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Santi Comesaña · Villarreal · 20′ · 0.01 xG · on targetIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 52′ · 0.01 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBebé · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYéremy Pino · Villarreal · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosé Luis Morales · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlberto Moreno · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedManu Trigueros · Villarreal · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 1′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 41′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 46′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIván Balliu · Rayo Vallecano · 7′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAlex Baena · Villarreal · 44′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedManu Trigueros · Villarreal · 69′ · 0.14 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 7′ · 0.18 xG · on targetÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 74′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 86′ · 0.18 xG · on targetRaúl Albiol · Villarreal · 56′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 15′ · 0.21 xG · goalYéremy Pino · Villarreal · 83′ · 0.50 xG · on targetKike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano · 16′ · 0.57 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.21 xG. Villarreal: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano · 16′Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 15′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 1.21 xG · Villarreal 1.60 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Villarreal have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Villarreal12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoVillarrealBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against14.3 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Villarreal have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.3%PossessionRayo Vallecano · Villarreal●57%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoVillarrealBaseline
Possession47.3%57%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Rayo Vallecano
0Draws
2Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano — Villarreal · La Liga2–1
Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–1
Rayo Vallecano — Villarreal · La Liga1–5
Villarreal — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 2 · 5 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/61.83 goals/match
1.68 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.27 xG/match
1.57 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/61.56 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/612.7 shots/match
14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/614.5 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/64.5 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/65.67 shots/match
47.3%Possessionseason · 6/6●57%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/6●5.5 corners/match
4.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/65.17 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
18.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/614.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/617%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano37.5
Villarreal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano66.7
Villarreal60.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano24.2
Villarreal10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Villarreal27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano92.5
Villarreal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano37.5
Villarreal72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano73.8
Villarreal62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano6 matchesVillarreal6 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.27 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shots6/612.7 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.5 shots/match
47.3%Possession6/6●57%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/6●5.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
18.3 fouls/matchFouls6/614.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano3 matchesVillarreal3 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/31 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1.33 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.3 xG/match
14.3 shots/match▲Shots3/311.7 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/34 shots/match
49.7%Possession3/3●59%
5 corners/matchCorners3/3●5.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
18 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 Sept 2023, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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