PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Fri, 22 Sept 2023, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricDeportivo AlavésAthletic Club
Shots15 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.15 xG/match1.73 xG/match▲
Possession43%57%●
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Rubén Duarte · Deportivo Alavés · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJavi López · Deportivo Alavés · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Berenguer · Athletic Club · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIanis Hagi · Deportivo Alavés · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKike García · Deportivo Alavés · 29′ · 0.03 xG · on targetÁlex Sola · Deportivo Alavés · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Sola · Deportivo Alavés · 63′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAnder Guevara · Deportivo Alavés · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKike García · Deportivo Alavés · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Berenguer · Athletic Club · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAleksandar Sedlar · Deportivo Alavés · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIker Muniain · Athletic Club · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés · 87′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 76′ · 0.07 xG · goalOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 44′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMikel Vesga · Athletic Club · 57′ · 0.13 xG · on targetDani Vivian · Athletic Club · 44′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMikel Vesga · Athletic Club · 56′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés · 74′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 46′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedKike García · Deportivo Alavés · 70′ · 0.19 xG · on targetKike García · Deportivo Alavés · 90′ · 0.19 xG · on targetSamu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés · 90′ · 0.27 xG · on targetIñaki Williams · Athletic Club · 73′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedIñaki Williams · Athletic Club · 18′ · 0.47 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Deportivo Alavés: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.15 xG. Athletic Club: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club · 18′Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Deportivo Alavés 1.15 xG · Athletic Club 1.69 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Athletic Club's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Deportivo Alavés's recent record differs from the season

weak

Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.83 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletic Club have a visible away split

weak

Athletic Club's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Athletic Club have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.3%PossessionDeportivo Alavés · Athletic Club●53.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricDeportivo AlavésAthletic ClubBaseline
Possession45.3%53.5%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Deportivo Alavés
1Draws
1Athletic Club
Deportivo Alavés — Athletic Club · La Liga0–0
Athletic Club — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Deportivo Alavés favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 8 · 3 too close

0.83 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.83 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.67 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲1.68 xG/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.76 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/611.8 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲11.5 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/65 shots/match
45.3%Possessionseason · 6/6●53.5%
3.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/6●4.83 corners/match
3.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/63.83 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
14.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/615.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲67%
33%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/6▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Deportivo Alavés17.5
Athletic Club67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Deportivo Alavés26.7
Athletic Club55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Deportivo Alavés42.5
Athletic Club65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Deportivo Alavés62.5
Athletic Club17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés67.5
Athletic Club72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés12.5
Athletic Club52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Deportivo Alavés35.6
Athletic Club53.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Deportivo Alavés6 matchesAthletic Club6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.83 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.67 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.68 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots6/611.8 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4 shots/match
45.3%Possession6/6●53.5%
3.33 corners/matchCorners6/6●4.83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.8 fouls/matchFouls6/615.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Deportivo Alavés3 matchesAthletic Club3 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.33 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.3 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shots3/310 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/32.67 shots/match
38.3%Possession3/3●54%
2.67 corners/matchCorners3/3●4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15 fouls/matchFouls3/313.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.29 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 22 Sept 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsDeportivo AlavésAthletic Club
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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