La Liga · 2023Sat, 23 Sept 2023, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Almería

LLDLL

2–2Full-time recap

Valencia

WWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Almería	Valencia
Shots	17 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2.67 xG/match▲	0.76 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	7 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Almería: 17 shots, 10 on target, 2.83 xG. Valencia: 7 shots, 5 on target, 0.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Almería 2.83 xG · Valencia 0.74 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Almería's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Almería's recent record differs from the season

weak

Almería's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.17 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible away split

weak

Valencia's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.67 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.67 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Almería

1Draws

0Valencia

9 Apr 2023Almería — Valencia · La Liga2–1

23 Jan 2023Valencia — Almería · La Liga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Almería favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Valencia in 6 · 3 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.5 goals/match

2.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲1 goals/match

1.69 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/61.19 xG/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.17 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/610.5 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.67 shots/match

6.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 6/64.67 shots/match

5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲3.33 shots/match

52%●Possessionseason · 6/647.7%

5.67 corners/match●Cornersseason · 6/63.83 corners/match

4.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/65.17 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/612.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲33%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/683%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Almería62.5

Valencia42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Almería67.5

Valencia45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Almería25.8

Valencia90

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Almería77.5

Valencia17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Almería42.5

Valencia37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Almería77.5

Valencia17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Almería71.2

Valencia33.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Almería6 matchesValencia6 matches

1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.5 goals/match

2.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1 goals/match

1.69 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.19 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots6/610.5 shots/match

6.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/64.67 shots/match

52%●Possession6/647.7%

5.67 corners/match●Corners6/63.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls6/612.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Almería4 matchesValencia3 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/3▲1.33 goals/match

2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/3▲1.33 goals/match

2.1 xG/match▲Expected goals4/30.88 xG/match

18 shots/match▲Shots4/38.67 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target4/34 shots/match

56.8%●Possession4/348.3%

6.25 corners/match●Corners4/32 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls4/312 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.2 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 6home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Sept 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4