PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Tue, 26 Sept 2023, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Sevilla

LLLWD
5–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSevillaAlmería
Shots18 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals2.22 xG/match▲1.78 xG/match
Possession47%53%●
Corners9 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Suso · Sevilla · 27′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Sevilla · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSergio Arribas · Almería · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussef En-Nesyri · Sevilla · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedErik Lamela · Sevilla · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSuso · Sevilla · 38′ · 0.03 xG · goalKaiky · Almería · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLoïc Badé · Sevilla · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDjibril Sow · Sevilla · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIbrahima Kone · Almería · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYoussef En-Nesyri · Sevilla · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDjibril Sow · Sevilla · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdrià Pedrosa · Sevilla · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDodi Lukebakio · Sevilla · 8′ · 0.08 xG · goalYoussef En-Nesyri · Sevilla · 44′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 33′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDjibril Sow · Sevilla · 61′ · 0.12 xG · on targetErik Lamela · Sevilla · 17′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedKike Salas · Sevilla · 90′ · 0.16 xG · goalKaiky · Almería · 89′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 42′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 55′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedErik Lamela · Sevilla · 51′ · 0.30 xG · goalDodi Lukebakio · Sevilla · 21′ · 0.32 xG · on targetYoussef En-Nesyri · Sevilla · 7′ · 0.73 xG · goalLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 71′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Sevilla: 18 shots, 9 on target, 2.27 xG. Almería: 10 shots, 1 on target, 1.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla · 7′Dodi Lukebakio · Sevilla · 8′Suso · Sevilla · 38′Erik Lamela · Sevilla · 51′Kike Salas · Sevilla · 90′Luis Javier Suárez · Almería · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sevilla 2.27 xG · Almería 1.80 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Sevilla, Almería. A second useful context is: Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Sevilla, Almería.

3.11 days▲Rest daysSevilla · Almería2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSevillaAlmeríaBaseline
Rest days3.11 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Almería have a visible away split

weak

Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match14.9 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Sevilla show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sevilla's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsSevilla · Almería14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSevillaAlmeríaBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14.9 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Sevilla
0Draws
1Almería
Sevilla — Almería · La Liga2–1
Almería — Sevilla · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Sevilla favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Almería in 2 · 3 too close

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 6/71.14 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 6/72.57 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/7▲1.7 xG/match
1.49 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/71.59 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 6/714.9 shots/match
12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 6/713.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/7▲5.43 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 6/76 shots/match
53.3%●Possessionseason · 6/752.1%
6.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 6/75.43 corners/match
4.17 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 6/75.43 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/713 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/70%
83%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sevilla67.5
Almería57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sevilla78.3
Almería62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sevilla67.5
Almería11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sevilla92.5
Almería77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sevilla30
Almería37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sevilla92.5
Almería75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sevilla71.2
Almería68.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Sevilla6 matchesAlmería7 matches
1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored6/71.14 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/72.57 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals6/7▲1.7 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots6/714.9 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target6/7▲5.43 shots/match
53.3%●Possession6/752.1%
6.33 corners/match●Corners6/75.43 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls6/713 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Sevilla4 matchesAlmería3 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/31 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/32.67 goals/match
1.59 xG/match▲Expected goals4/31.18 xG/match
18.5 shots/match▲Shots4/310.7 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/33.33 shots/match
49.3%●Possession4/346%
7.5 corners/match●Corners4/34.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.5 fouls/matchFouls4/314.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 26 Sept 2023, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSevillaAlmería
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match