PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sun, 1 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–3Full-time recap

Granada

WLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAlmeríaGranada
Shots17 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.92 xG/match▲2.89 xG/match
Possession49%51%●
Corners1 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls18 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Antonio Puertas · Granada · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDion Lopy · Almería · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Boyé · Granada · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLucas Boyé · Granada · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Puertas · Granada · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLucas Boyé · Granada · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBryan Zaragoza · Granada · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosé Callejón · Granada · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 20′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJosé Callejón · Granada · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Boyé · Granada · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLucas Boyé · Granada · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRicard Sánchez · Granada · 70′ · 0.05 xG · goalLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 16′ · 0.06 xG · on targetÁlvaro Carreras · Granada · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGonzalo Melero · Almería · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMyrto Uzuni · Granada · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMyrto Uzuni · Granada · 86′ · 0.16 xG · goalÁlvaro Carreras · Granada · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Rubio · Granada · 59′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedEdgar González · Almería · 20′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedLucas Boyé · Granada · 11′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 41′ · 0.38 xG · goalLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 45′ · 0.80 xG · goalAntonio Puertas · Granada · 57′ · 0.82 xG · on targetBryan Zaragoza · Granada · 66′ · 0.82 xG · goalLuis Javier Suárez · Almería · 44′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Almería: 17 shots, 5 on target, 2.96 xG. Granada: 19 shots, 4 on target, 2.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Luis Javier Suárez · Almería · 41′Luis Javier Suárez · Almería · 44′Luis Javier Suárez · Almería · 45′Bryan Zaragoza · Granada · 66′Ricard Sánchez · Granada · 70′Myrto Uzuni · Granada · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Almería 2.96 xG · Granada 2.99 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Almería's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Almería, Granada. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Almería's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Almería's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Almería, Granada.

4.79 days▲Rest daysAlmería · Granada2.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAlmeríaGranadaBaseline
Rest days4.79 days2.79 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Granada have a visible away split

weak

Granada's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Almería favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Granada in 2 · 6 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.63 goals/match
2.63 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/82.63 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.33 xG/match
1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/82.08 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/811.3 shots/match
14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/813.6 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/84.63 shots/match
5.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/85.5 shots/match
51.8%●Possessionseason · 8/846.1%
4.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/84.88 corners/match
5.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲4.13 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/813.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/80%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/875%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Almería62.5
Granada22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Almería73.3
Granada55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Almería6.7
Granada14.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Almería77.5
Granada42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Almería65
Granada55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Almería65
Granada65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Almería73.8
Granada54.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Almería8 matchesGranada8 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.63 goals/match
2.63 goals/matchGoals allowed8/82.63 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.33 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots8/811.3 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.63 shots/match
51.8%●Possession8/846.1%
4.88 corners/matchCorners8/84.88 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFouls8/813.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Almería5 matchesGranada4 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲1.75 goals/match
2.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/43 goals/match
2.26 xG/match▲Expected goals5/41.16 xG/match
17.8 shots/match▲Shots5/49 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/43.5 shots/match
55.2%●Possession5/446.5%
5.2 corners/match●Corners5/45 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13 fouls/matchFouls5/414 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.79 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAlmeríaGranada
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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