La Liga · 2023Sun, 29 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Athletic Club

WDLWL

2–2Full-time recap

Valencia

DLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Athletic Club	Valencia
Shots	12 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.86 xG/match	1.86 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	10 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Athletic Club: 12 shots, 7 on target, 1.88 xG. Valencia: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Athletic Club 1.88 xG · Valencia 1.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

weak

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.27 goals/match	1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Valencia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsAthletic Club · Valencia10.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Athletic Club	Valencia	Baseline
Shots	12.9 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	12.1 shots/match
Shots against	10.6 shots/match	9.18 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Athletic Club

2Draws

0Valencia

11 Feb 2023Valencia — Athletic Club · La Liga1–2

21 Aug 2022Athletic Club — Valencia · La Liga1–0

7 May 2022Athletic Club — Valencia · La Liga0–0

25 Sept 2021Valencia — Athletic Club · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Athletic Club favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Valencia in 3 · 2 too close

1.64 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.27 goals/match

1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.18 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/111.1 xG/match

0.97 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 11/111.09 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1110.5 shots/match

10.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲9.18 shots/match

4.55 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/114 shots/match

4.82 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4 shots/match

52%●Possessionseason · 11/1147.5%

5.82 corners/match●Cornersseason · 11/113.64 corners/match

3.82 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/115.09 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1112.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1127%

64%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲73%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Athletic Club57.5

Valencia37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Athletic Club64.2

Valencia33.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Athletic Club68.3

Valencia75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Athletic Club52.5

Valencia17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club67.5

Valencia32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club82.5

Valencia7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Athletic Club67.5

Valencia22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Athletic Club11 matchesValencia11 matches

1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.27 goals/match

1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.18 goals/match

1.53 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.1 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.5 shots/match

4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114 shots/match

52%●Possession11/1147.5%

5.82 corners/match●Corners11/113.64 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Athletic Club6 matchesValencia6 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.17 goals/match

1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match

1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.95 xG/match

14 shots/match▲Shots6/69.5 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.67 shots/match

53.8%●Possession6/647.2%

6.33 corners/match●Corners6/63.17 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.7 fouls/matchFouls6/611 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Oct 2023, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4