La Liga · 2023Sun, 22 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Barcelona

WWDWD

1–0Full-time recap

Athletic Club

WWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Barcelona	Athletic Club
Shots	12 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.34 xG/match▲	0.44 xG/match
Possession	62%●	38%
Corners	4 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Barcelona: 12 shots, 7 on target, 1.34 xG. Athletic Club: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Barcelona 1.34 xG · Athletic Club 0.45 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Barcelona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.6 corners/match●CornersBarcelona · Athletic Club5.4 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Athletic Club	Baseline
Corners	6.6 corners/match	5.4 corners/match	4.47 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Barcelona's recent record differs from the season

weak

Barcelona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	2.2 goals/match	1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

69.2%●PossessionBarcelona · Athletic Club51.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Athletic Club	Baseline
Possession	69.2%	51.5%	49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Barcelona

1Draws

0Athletic Club

12 Mar 2023Athletic Club — Barcelona · La Liga0–1

23 Oct 2022Barcelona — Athletic Club · La Liga4–0

27 Feb 2022Barcelona — Athletic Club · La Liga4–0

21 Aug 2021Athletic Club — Barcelona · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Barcelona favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 2 · 5 too close

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/101.6 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/101 goals/match

2.3 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/101.5 xG/match

0.99 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/10▲0.88 xG/match

16.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1013 shots/match

10.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/1010.6 shots/match

6.9 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/104.3 shots/match

3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/104.8 shots/match

69.2%●Possessionseason · 10/1051.5%

6.6 corners/match●Cornersseason · 10/105.4 corners/match

4.1 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/10▲3.8 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1013.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1050%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Barcelona97.5

Athletic Club57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Barcelona89.2

Athletic Club60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Barcelona90

Athletic Club70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Barcelona22.5

Athletic Club52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Barcelona12.5

Athletic Club72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Barcelona97.5

Athletic Club72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Barcelona72.5

Athletic Club63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Barcelona10 matchesAthletic Club10 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101 goals/match

2.3 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.5 xG/match

16.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1013 shots/match

6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.3 shots/match

69.2%●Possession10/1051.5%

6.6 corners/match●Corners10/105.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Barcelona5 matchesAthletic Club5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match

0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/50.8 goals/match

2.25 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.23 xG/match

17.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match

7.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match

67%●Possession5/549.8%

7.6 corners/match●Corners5/55.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/116 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples10 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Oct 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4