La Liga · 2023Fri, 10 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
43Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAthletic ClubCelta Vigo
Shots21 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots on target12 shots/match5 shots/match
Expected goals4.6 xG/match2.24 xG/match
Possession58%42%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Iago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIñaki Williams · Athletic Club · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFran Beltrán · Celta Vigo · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMikel Vesga · Athletic Club · 55′ · 0.02 xG · on targetGorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 14′ · 0.03 xG · on targetÓscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNico Williams · Athletic Club · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNico Williams · Athletic Club · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 15′ · 0.04 xG · on targetOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 33′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIñaki Williams · Athletic Club · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 25′ · 0.05 xG · goalJørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedÓscar de Marcos · Athletic Club · 47′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 41′ · 0.06 xG · goalIñaki Williams · Athletic Club · 45′ · 0.07 xG · on targetOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 78′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNico Williams · Athletic Club · 2′ · 0.11 xG · on targetGorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 20′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedUnai Núñez · Celta Vigo · 70′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 74′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 16′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNico Williams · Athletic Club · 52′ · 0.16 xG · on targetDani García · Athletic Club · 90′ · 0.23 xG · on targetOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 60′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedGorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 45′ · 0.33 xG · goalOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 37′ · 0.61 xG · goalJørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 66′ · 0.72 xG · goalGorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 52′ · 0.77 xG · goalIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 72′ · 0.82 xG · on targetÁlex Berenguer · Athletic Club · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goalNico Williams · Athletic Club · 48′ · 0.83 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Athletic Club: 21 shots, 12 on target, 4.76 xG. Celta Vigo: 13 shots, 5 on target, 2.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.550′HT90′Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 37′Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 45′Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 52′Álex Berenguer · Athletic Club · 90′Iago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 25′Jonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 41′Jørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Athletic Club 4.76 xG · Celta Vigo 2.25 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

weak

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.92 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.69 corners/matchCornersAthletic Club · Celta Vigo5.31 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAthletic ClubCelta VigoBaseline
Corners5.69 corners/match5.31 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Athletic Club have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.7%PossessionAthletic Club · Celta Vigo43%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAthletic ClubCelta VigoBaseline
Possession51.7%43%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Athletic Club
0Draws
2Celta Vigo
Athletic ClubCelta Vigo · La Liga21
Celta VigoAthletic Club · La Liga10
Athletic ClubCelta Vigo · La Liga02
Celta VigoAthletic Club · La Liga01

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Athletic Club favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 0 · 3 too close

1.92 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/131.08 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/131.85 goals/match
1.83 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/131.42 xG/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/131.64 xG/match
13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1313.6 shots/match
11.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1312.9 shots/match
5.31 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/134.38 shots/match
4.92 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/135.31 shots/match
51.7%Possessionseason · 13/1343%
5.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.31 corners/match
4.08 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/135.08 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.1 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
38%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/130%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1362%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Athletic Club57.5
Celta Vigo17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Athletic Club79.2
Celta Vigo50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Athletic Club57.5
Celta Vigo24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Athletic Club72.5
Celta Vigo92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club72.5
Celta Vigo27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club82.5
Celta Vigo72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Athletic Club77.5
Celta Vigo57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Athletic Club13 matchesCelta Vigo13 matches
1.92 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.08 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/131.85 goals/match
1.83 xG/matchExpected goals13/131.42 xG/match
13.8 shots/matchShots13/1313.6 shots/match
5.31 shots/matchShots on target13/134.38 shots/match
51.7%Possession13/1343%
5.69 corners/matchCorners13/135.31 corners/match
Cards0/0
14 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Athletic Club7 matchesCelta Vigo6 matches
2.57 goals/matchGoals scored7/61.67 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed7/62.17 goals/match
2.19 xG/matchExpected goals7/61.37 xG/match
15 shots/matchShots7/612 shots/match
6.86 shots/matchShots on target7/65.17 shots/match
54.4%Possession7/635.5%
6.43 corners/matchCorners7/63.83 corners/match
Cards0/0
13.9 fouls/matchFouls7/611.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.1 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Nov 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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